Cars Blog's

"Safa Rashtchy, a stock analyst who for several years has been at the forefront of covering Internet-based commerce, is resigning as managing director, senior Internet analyst at investment banking firm Piper Jaffray & Co.
Rashtchy will leave Piper Jaffray at the end of June. He adds that he will take off the rest of the year before deciding what to do next."

I would advise him definitely check his water supply - too much Prozac is in there, good investment will be to read history of Frank Quattrone and Henry Blodget.

As it was written here before:

"We tend to be critical of all these "Buy" and "Rising Target" and "Estimates" (of Buyers stupidity?) from young analyst from Big Houses, it looks like sometimes they did not invested in CASIO or have tendency to see only part of figures and are using a lot of monkey language messing up with GAAP and NON GAAP on one page. Big Houses always wins and stays, young guys are going, sometimes they are punished, sacked and even baned for life, but you know - it is not easier for you, your money is gone. You do not even ask sometimes curiosity sake how could it happen? Big House could not afford Casio or it just happen to have Big Positions in recommended stock which need to be unfolded. You know already this MR Market trick: for every happy Seller he needs to find a Sucker - called Buyer or Institutional Client (it is easy to find Suckers when you give them due respect or even better when they manage OTHER PEOPLE MONEY like pension funds come to mind)."

Now we can expect more development and news coming out:

1. Recent activity with cross trades of millions shares.

2. IFC is going to be more active in the region, PD is mentioned and its Tenke Fungurume project., news to be out on financing facilities.

3. By Q2 resource estimation will incorporate 15 months of recent drilling by PD.

4. Argentina development in order to recognise value of exploration activities.

5. More analyst coverage with further mine development.

6. New Tenke mining presentation.

"Upon closing, Freeport will operate a diverse portfolio of copper, gold and molybdenum reserves. The Grasberg, Indonesia, mine, the world's largest copper and gold mine in terms of reserves, will be the key asset of the combined company.
It will also operate significant mines in North and South America and proceed with development of the world-class Tenke Fungurume project in the Democratic Republic of Congo."

"SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -Viacom Inc. has filed a $1 billion lawsuit for copyright infringement against Google Inc.'s YouTube unit, alleging that more than 160,000 videos of its content have appeared on the free video-sharing Web site without Viacom's permission.
The suit, filed in U.S. District Court in New York, also asks that a judge bar YouTube from allowing its users to post any copyrighted videos.
Viacom is the first entertainment giant to file a copyright infringement lawsuit against Google since the No. 1 Internet search provider bought YouTube for $1.65 billion in stock last year. At the time of the purchase, announced in October, insiders predicted a bevy of copyright lawsuits would follow.
The Viacom lawsuit illustrates the difficulty Google and YouTube have had in reaching licensing deals with entertainment companies whose videos appear on the site . Viacom had been in negotiations with Google to license its content, it said, but talks have since ended.
"Their business model, which is based on building traffic and selling advertising off of unlicensed content, is clearly illegal and is in obvious conflict with copyright laws," Viacom said in a statement.
The litigation follows a demand by Viacom earlier this year that YouTube remove 100,000 video clips from its shows, including "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report." It was the largest such demand YouTube faced from a copyright owner, and the Web site complied with the request within a week.
Viacom adds that "YouTube's strategy has been to avoid taking proactive steps to curtail the infringement on its site, thus generating significant traffic and revenues for itself while shifting the entire burden - and high cost - of monitoring YouTube onto the victims of its infringement."
The lawsuit also touches on the challenges faced by YouTube and other video sites that let anyone upload videos, seemingly without any oversight.
Relying on user generated content has helped YouTube become one of the most popular sites on the Internet, but it's also opened the door for pirated content, and as Viacom has shown, potentially costly litigation.
A representative for Google and YouTube didn't immediately return a call seeking comment. Ben Charny is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco."

Subprime worries are spreading very fast and as it was written before spiral of credit tightening will finish recent Bull market and put pressure on US dollar. Gold and silver will be rising again. Silver could benefit even more then gold just because size of the market is relatively small. One of the interesting companies is a "silver bank" Silver Wheaton (SLW) This company has secured supply of silver with fixed prices from silver mining companies by paying them upfront and if silver will be moving higher as I am anticipating this company will get all the upside from increasing prices. There is no specific mining risk connected to this company, it is pure option play without time decay on silver price. Now Silver Wheaton is finishing consolidation pattern and close to break out. If you are considering silver exposure for your portfolio, this company deserves your attention in line with silver juniors covered before Avino Gold and Silver mines, Sterling Mining and Mines management. Market cap of Silver Wheaton could accommodate big investors when fashion will be back into silver market and stock will benefit first from the money inflows in this sector. Very important to mention that this company is with real earnings and recently reported earnings of $23.8 mil or 10 cents per share, increase of 150% from $7 mil or 4 cents per share in the prior year quarter. For the year, earnings expanded to $85.2 million, or 37 cents per share, from $25.3 million, or 15 cents per share, in 2005. It is increase of 147% y/y and with current price $9.43 stock has P/E of 25.5. Everybody is still exited about Google growth, which is slowing by the way, and here we have ultimate earnings machine nobody have noticed yet. Silver sales more than doubled to $158.5 million from $70.9 million on increased silver sales volumes and higher average prices in 2006.

Silver Wheaton website: "Silver Wheaton is the largest mining company with 100% of its revenue from the sale of silver. Having silver purchase contracts with three separate mines, the Company expects to sell approximately 15 million ounces of silver in 2007, growing to 20 million ounces by 2009. The Company purchases all of the silver production from Goldcorp mines in Mexico and the Zinkgruvan Mine in Sweden, together with a portion of the silver production from Glencore’s Yauliyacu Mine in Peru. Silver Wheaton’s unique and simple business model is designed to create long-term shareholder value, providing for strong upside potential with downside protection. Silver Wheaton is unhedged and well positioned for further growth"

As I put before in "Market SellOff and coming Slump: Gold, Silver and Commodities Meditation. CS " :"...Here are few important assumptions for the Health of the Market: you must be very Dumb in shoe making (remember your expertise is in windmill business (any Tech will do for Average Joe), you must think that people there are not so Rotten as in your industry (you will never invest in your neighbours windmill, they are all crooks) people in General are subject to Authority, so guys who will prepack IPO of shoe maker will put guy from Harvard in charge. And you must have other Market participants like analysts with Buy recommendation (who work for the bank which is selling IPO or have some position in shares and need to sell) and People managing Other's People Money. This is very special breed -your difference with them is that you are losing your Capital, they could lose their job in worst case scenario. Usually they are fine if the value of the Fund plunge together with Market, it is called Benchmarking."

"On March 1, a Wall Street analyst at Bear Stearns wrote an upbeat report on a company that specializes in making mortgages to cash-poor homebuyers. The company, New Century Financial, had already disclosed that a growing number of borrowers were defaulting, and its stock, at around $15, had lost half its value in three weeks. What happened next seems all too familiar to investors who bought technology stocks in 2000 at the breathless urging of Wall Street analysts. Last week, New Century said it would stop making loans and needed emergency financing to survive. The stock collapsed to $3.21. ... The Bear Stearns analyst who upgraded New Century, Scott R. Coren, wrote in a research note that the company’s stock price reflected the risks in its industry, and that the downside risk was about $10 in a “rescue-sale scenario.” According to New Century, Bear Stearns is among the firms with a “longstanding” relationship financing its mortgage operation. Mr. Coren, through a spokeswoman, declined to comment"

Same old, same old...ENRON, Worldcom, TYCO...Google (but this time it is different, is it?)

I like Chinese, they can nail it down, today mostly their reserves consist of US treasures which are apparently considered UNSAFE: "China's central bank holds about 70 percent of its currency reserves in dollars and had a 2006 loss of 26 billion yuan ($3.4 billion) from exchange-rate movements, Standard Chartered Bank Plc's senior economist Stephen Green estimates." So they have found safe way to manage their reserves: "State Council had decided to divide the country's foreign exchange reserves into two parts: "normal" reserves and money to be used for investment seeking "more profits." The first part will be managed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)." Will they invest part of 1 trillion foreign reserves in Google or other "high growth expectation dreams" I doubt it, this money is not going to safe American Bull: they will continue what they are already doing: securing assets which will allow them feed the Dragon and grow Chinese economy: Canadian oil sands, African mineral assets with Copper and other metals, Australian Uranium, Russian gas: "They're not going to be looking for financial assets, but energy assets and natural resources, minerals — things China desperately needs," said Jing Ulrich of J.P. Morgan. " Commodities bull market will receive new healthy dose of adrenalin from this Strategic Investor, which will not get busted in leverage plays or sell with every rumor in the market, but will hold these assets for their real value - base for manufacturing production and infrastructure development in Asia. Who will benefit: companies with great management and developing asset base: Canadian oil sands play like Habanero resources HAO.v; Copper in Congo like Tenke mining; Copper, Zinc, Gold and Silver in Canada like Copper Fox Metals, Copper and Silver in Mexico like Capstone mining; quality gold and silver juniors like Avino Gold and Silver mines, Sterling mining and Mines management. This recent development means that US dollar will be under pressure once Chinese will reduce holding of their Treasury bills and will trade them for real assets. Real rates will go up because in order to sell new IOU Treasury will need to give more discount on its unsafe (according to Chinese Central Bank) goods - treasury bills. With falling nominal rates in order to reinflate economy from recession after housing bubble has busted we will be in the Negative Rates territory like in recession in 2002 and Gold and Silver will blossom again. Will this development happen to be catalyst of ignating new Bull Leg in Commodities, Gold and Silver mining companies shares after recent consolidation? We will see it in nearest future, but for sure it is very important positive development in these markets.

In the end of the Housing bull market you could apply for loan and get it without any proper credit check, with your income sufficient enough only to repay interest, and without any down payment. "Mortgages requiring little or no documentation became known colloquially as “liar loans.” An April 2006 report by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute, a consulting concern in Reston, Va., analyzed 100 loans in which the borrowers merely stated their incomes, and then looked at documents those borrowers had filed with the I.R.S. The resulting differences were significant: in 90 percent of loans, borrowers overstated their incomes 5 percent or more. But in almost 60 percent of cases, borrowers inflated their incomes by more than half." Once market moved into the bear territory value of the loan is higher then value of the house - you are in negative equity. You do not have money any more to pay interest because it has risen with Fed hikes, you will not be able to return loan and house will go in foreclosure with 20-30% discount even to recent market value. It is only on the margins of economy? I am afraid not so. Just look at GM, I thought they were supposed to compete with Nissan and Toyota. The biggest problem is that Marginal Bank repackaged all those mortgages to another banks in a way of Bonds sold with New High rating but with the same Junk underlying. The chain was going up in perceived quality of Bonds with increasing Rank of Latest Bank, when the house of cards will fall down all these A ratings will be worth less then paper to print them. Goldman, Merrill Almost `Junk,' Their Own Traders Say

How big is disaster? "Investment manias are nothing new, of course. But the demise of this one has been broadly viewed as troubling, as it involves the nation’s $6.5 trillion mortgage securities market, which is larger even than the United States treasury market." All that excess liquidity from reinflation of economy out of recession in 2002 and which was driving Recent Bull market in equities found its way into the broadest available market - housing, unsustainable bubble was created and inflation spiraled out of control. Tightening in the way of increasing Fed rates brought first "marginal" borrowers to their knees, foreclosures and first losses will bring further tightening in the form of "restoration" of credit quality: loans will become less available, demand for housing will go down further, prices will collapse and consumer will stop drive economy without home ATM machine. Economy is in recession. Markets are plunging, rates are cut, negative rates pushing USD downwards and driving commodities, gold and silver bull markets.

"Late payments swelled to around 12.6% last autumn, according to Morgan Stanley, up from about 7% at the end of 2003.

General Motors, the world's biggest carmaker, may have to take a charge of almost $1 billion to cover the bad mortgage loans of its subsidiary, Residential Capital, says Lehman Brothers. HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, saw its bad-debt costs soar by 36% to over $10 billion in 2006 because of sloppy lending. Its chief executive, trying to reassure investors, said: “This is not trailer-park lending...this is Main Street America.”

Subprime mortgage loans made up over a fifth of all originations last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a newsletter, up from 6% in 2002 (see chart).

They lowered underwriting standards and offered a bevy of “affordability” products like extra-long-term or “interest-only” mortgages (in which principal payments are deferred for a time) and loans with low teaser interest rates, known as hybrid mortgages, that balloon after a few years.

The “FICO” credit scores on which mortgage lending often relies did not capture this risk layering. Scores were probably inflated. David Hendler of CreditSights, a research firm, says around 40% of a FICO score is based on repayment history—but these records were “artificially rosy” because of the recent housing boom.

The effects of a dramatic slowdown, or credit crunch, in the subprime and the Alt A market could spread. The stock of unsold homes would remain unsold longer, crimping house prices. Consumer spending might slow. Investors might shy away from securities backed by prime mortgages and other assets, not just subprime ones, pulling liquidity out of the market. "

"Subprime lending
Rising damp
Mar 8th 2007From The Economist print edition

With recent spike in volume somebody is clearly accumulating serious position in Tenke mining, Merger between FCX and PD will be voted on 14th of March, after that we can expect fast developments on financing front and resource estimation with drill results accounted from PD 2006 exploration programme. Important that Argentina's projects Value will be realised before possible Takeover TNK.to. I hope it will be in the way of spin off with dividend in kind transaction. Paul Conibear has told before that FCX even more aggressive with Tenke Fungurume story:

"Supply constraints, China demand underpin prices: FCX
Mine supply constraints, along with continuing strong Chinese demand, look set to underpin copper prices in coming years, Richard Adkerson, president and CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, said during the last week of February.
"We feel good about demand but particularly good about supply," Adkerson told the BMO Capital Markets 2007 Global Resources Conference in Tampa, Florida, via webcast. "We know how tough it is to find new sources of copper and develop them in today's world .... In the past few years the industry has fallen short of its supply targets. We're just not seeing new Grasbergs and Escondidas," he said.
One potential new project is Tenke Fungurume in the Democratic Republic of Congo, partly owned by Phelps Dodge. Freeport is in the process of acquiring fellow US copper producer Phelps Dodge, and expects to complete the transaction next month.
Part-owner Tenke Mining announced February 26 that the feasibility study had been completed for the first phase of production at Tenke Fungurume, targeting initial output of around 115,000 mt/year of Grade A-quality copper cathode and 8,000 mt/year of cobalt. Full production of copper is scheduled to occur as early as the fourth quarter of 2008, with full cobalt production as early as the end of the first quarter of 2009.
"To have Tenke Fungurume in the same company with Grasberg [Freeport's copper-gold mine in Indonesia] is an exciting part of what we have before us," Adkerson said.
An executive with minority shareholder Tenke Mining said he didn't expect the newly elected government in the DRC to implement any new tax measures that would delay production. "The Congo needs successful mining projects like this to go ahead [rather] than change the tax code," president and CEO Paul Conibear said during the same conference. "Can they change things? Will they change things? I don't think so," he said. "I think President [Joseph] Kabila knows he has to help instill investor confidence for him to achieve his goals of stabilizing the country."
Meanwhile, lagging mine output is making life "tough" for smelters, Adkerson suggested: "There's more than adequate smelter capacity and a shortage of concentrate."
On the demand side, China will be "an important source of demand to the industry for years to come," he said. While Adkerson acknowledged that soaring copper prices had seen some substitution away from the metal in certain sectors, noticeably plumbing - "substitution is a fact of life and a function of high prices" - he argued that copper's particular physical properties continued to make it the preferred choice in most of its applications.
The combined Freeport-Phelps Dodge - which will be the world's second-largest copper producer behind Chilean state miner Codelco - will be well positioned to weather any downturn in copper prices, Adkerson said.
"If prices were to get to a low level, we have a set of assets that can respond to it," he said, adding: "We would be in a position to flex production more aggressively than Phelps Dodge was able to in the past." Freeport's Grasberg copper-gold mine "can generate profits at any level of prices," Adkerson said.
Assuming 2007 average copper prices of $2.50/lb and average gold prices of $600/oz, along with achievement of current 2007 sales estimates, the company's PT Freeport Indonesia unit has estimated its annual 2007 unit net cash costs, including gold and silver credits, will be about 63cts/lb.
The London Metal Exchange cash copper settlement price March 2 was $6,056/mt ($2.75/lb), while spot gold reached an afternoon fix in London at $651.90/oz.
Consolidation moves in recent years have left the copper industry as a whole in a better position to respond to a price downturn than in the past when a fragmented sector saw smaller companies needing to continue producing regardless of prevailing prices, Adkerson suggested.
Created: March 6, 2007"

If you are new to the concept that Market is not always going up welcome to this education session. Today in Google's share price we had typical Bear Market behavior: it is called "Sell the Rally". Despite of all spin by Bubble Media and Recent Upgrades stock is barely fighting gravitation and collapsing by the end of the trading session to the day's low. Google is so important because it is the Barometer of Recent Irrational Exuberance in the Market and is acting as an important benchmark of valuation based not on clear understanding of Business Model protected by Franchise: its unique value proposition, brand connection, customer loyalty and highest possible switching cost to its substitution, its pricing power and ability to generate cash flow or asset value (which is important Value Metrics for commodities area), but by pure speculation about the possible future outcomes of "perceived by the crowd technological leader".

Google Stock is not reacting to positive spin any more, it is very important bear market observation. Institutions are using every opportunity to exit the stock positions and selling into reaction rallies after clear Fundamentals' Deterioration and Technical Reversal Pattern. What will be very important here: to stay alive, close all speculation positions in Tech and protect your capital, do not be afraid to miss next 24% upside (which consideration ignited UBS Buy rating) but to lose 50% of your Capital if they will happen to be wrong. Rising tide is lifting all boats, the most dangerous mistake is to think that your own genius have brought you there and not the rising liquidity flow. Once markets are tightened by increased rates nominal and real ones shock waves will start to unfold in the places of most leverage application: Housing via repackaged mortgages and connected to Carry Trade Derivatives and Credit Swaps. It will tighten money supply available to maintain positions further and will trigger margin calls on Trade Houses levels, the only way to survive for them will be liquidation in the Market. Suddenly everybody will run for the same Exit. Cash, cash and cash: formula for Bear Market - if you have a profit take it. The most important thing is that when Bear returns all Talking Heads will be telling you that this is just a correction until it is too late and Common Sense math will kill your investment future. Have you ever noticed that by losing 30% you will need asset to increase in value by 42.9% just to bring you back. that is why Buffet's rule No 1 is "Never lose money" and No 2 " Is never forget Rule No 1". It is still not too late, take profit and think for a while, you will not miss anything: your capital will be safe and if I am wrong you will not earn some money which is completely different to losing part of your Capital. If you have Capital and Health, new ideas will come, you will write me an angry comment and will find another blog to follow. Here it is Very Important, do not Trust anyone and Do Not Follow anyone's advise, including mine: it is only some thoughts to think about and in some places you can find more productive ones then in others. Also as you have noticed I almost never giving Sell after Buy Idea (or Buy back after Sell) it is completely up to you when to establish position and which size of profit to take. I am never selling short and prefer counter trend exposure: falling USD - Gold and Silver, for more leverage - quality Juniors (options on underlying metal without time decay). Going Short I am buying Puts limiting my Risk to maximum loss of Initial position, needless to remind you that here apart from Value Timing is crucial and Technical Analyses is followed. Same approach is with Calls on my Bullish positions. Core positions maintained in long term approach according to the main investment idea I am following at the moment, trading opportunities are used to create Capital in order to increase core positions on Reactions in the Bull Market. New family of ETF created by Proshares for Bear market applications could be very usefull - they allow to create bearish exposure without time decay and your loss will be limited by initial position. This range is very wide from Basic materials and up to Health care and imply 200% leverage in opposite direction of the benchmark index. Their tickers are SZK, SCC, SKF, SRS, SU, SSG, and REW.

Like it was written here before, I really have to repeat it one more time even for myself - if I am right it will continue to be Major Investment Idea of this decade:

"This Grip is weakening, Markets can not be manipulated forever, structural changes are getting worse when cosmetics are applied. The main Idea is that USA is no longer Superpower on its own chosen role of World's Policemen, its cost is too much and it is not respected any more. We have Empire of Debt. Read the book. It could be your best investment this year. The chosen Reserve Currency of Choice US Dollar is No More Good. Local Elites have grown up and would like their Cut, they do not like to do what they told. Power is shifting from Overburden with Debt, stretched in Wars Empire to the new and young Players. While USA was shifting into the Abyss of financial Economy new Tigers were building factories, Consumer in the West is so tired with consumption of Not Needed Things that you have to produce it in China, bring it back, give them money to buy it and then give them to switch to another credit card in order not to pay the interest for a while. Housing Bubble has helped a lot, Home ATM kept juice running all these years, but not any more. We are in Recession yield curve is inverted for months now, Housing Bubble is Bursting, WEB 2.0 Bubble is next. What to do PPT: first to kill the Gold, it is important that USD will still be considered as "Safe Heaven" and money will flow into the Bond market to finance credit account deficit otherwise gold will be 1000 and Death to USD by Thousand Cuts. Second is make Plunge into Orderly Decline, not to make a Snowball effect devastating. What will happen next? The truth is Orderly Decline in USD is in the interest of USA it is the only way to inflate the Debts out. I think it is very vivid imagination to expect any interest rise, some more "orderly decline" in the market and they will need to be cut just to keep things together. Consumer can not help any more: Housing Bubble killed its ability to spend: more and more people are moving into the Negative Equity and Negative Savings territory. Do not believe its is well contained, do you remember Alan? And his fragmented housing market subject to local valuations, why is Subprime mortgage market is busting and he start to use sacred word Recession (possible, probable - respect the confused old man and tell him someone it is already happen). How far the pain has spread if "Goldman, Merrill Almost `Junk,' Their Own Traders Say". With Nominal Rates moving Down and Real Rates moving Up (because of inflation and your need to finance current account deficit you have to give discount on your IOU - higher rates) we will be back in Negative rate territory like in 2002 and Gold and Silver will blossom again. That is why Gold is The Enemy of the State: one look at the price and you can get the idea about inflation and real economy and political health. You can try manipulate it but you can not Outlaw it: Russian are buying it, Chinese are buying, even Arab friends are counting their beans separately. We can expect deep in the Goldies which has already happen with the General Market and then powerful move up from oversold condition and it could happen at any time with Video Game in Persian Gulf. What about Commodities, we are fortunate enough that Earth will not stop spinning around with USA in recession, I do not thing that somebody will put the World into the World War for Resources but there is some risk. Check the number of people on our planet, from 1960 to 1999 Earth's population Doubled! Most of these people are living in emerging markets. Do you remember law of Diminishing Marginal Value it is when your satisfaction feelings of change of a cam with 8 mega pixels to 9 mega pixels can not get even close to the excitement of the sound of First Flushed Toilet in your life in China. If you are building hundreds airports across the country, moving people from the coast into 40 newly build 10 million people each cities you do not need first credit cards, SEO marketing games or Search - you need Cu for your wires, Oil for your engines and Uranium for your Electricity needs. And you need to diversify your 1 Trillion Reserve from Orderly falling USD. And Very important thing: IT IS NOT FREE Market at all! Do not get me wrong China is Great but Markets are still better regulated here. That is why I do not invest in the Dragon but in its food which is made buy Western Standard (for example Tenke Mining). Here is the advantage: if communist China decided to build 40 cities and hundreds airports they will be build, punishment is not bonus taken back, but life spent in prison. Fear is much stronger motivation then Greed. That is why Sell Offs are more sharp and sudden then the moves up."

I have found brilliant article with Megaphone concept which is new to me and is confirming my findings on QQQQ and similar view on Gold and Silver to my understanding.

Must be all Hedge fund managers were very stressed by Bull market in February, stayed late at work counting profits and did not drop into the WalMart as they usually do. Because ordinary fox definitely are fine if you listen to the Bubble Media, Paulson and Bernanke: Housing Bubble is "well contained" and implications of Subprime Melt Down will never reach your house.

"Wal-Mart, dragged down by languishing sales at its namesake stores, reported a slim 0.9 percent gain in same-store sales, below the 1.5 percent estimate from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Wal-Mart's namesake division posted a 0.4 percent same-store sales gain, while Sam's Club had a 3.9 percent gain.
The world's largest retailer, which stumbled last year with a merchandising strategy that was too trendy, blamed the sales shortfall on the continued weakness in the home and apparel business. Wal-Mart said those two businesses should remain soft through the spring."

"APRetailers Post Disappointing Feb. SalesThursday March 8, 8:29 am ET By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer
Cold Weather in Feb. Cuts Demand for Lightweight Apparel, Prompting Disappointing Retail Sales
NEW YORK (AP) -- The nation's retailers had a slow start to the spring season as unseasonably cold weather in February chilled demand for lightweight apparel and left merchants with disappointing sales. The slowing economy, particularly the weakening housing market, could challenge shoppers in the months ahead.
As merchants reported monthly sales results early Thursday, those with disappointing results included Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp. and Limited Brands Inc...con'd"

I started following statistics from mid November 2006 and today will have a small party funded by profit from Google puts about my 10000th reader, give me a buzz if you can you are from P...r. If situation will unfolded as I am expecting your will not waste your time here. More money left for the thinking guys and girls - less Energy Disruption in the world, we are making a better place. Thank you.

One and one more time to say: you can not base your intire business model around stolen content, Guys you must try harder for 140 billion market cap. Prize to "defend America" is in Google's Peggy cash position of 11 billion dollars. It is too big to miss, expect more law suites and more Heavy Weighters joining the Hunt:

"Google could be a good corporate citizen and make sure they have permission from the copyright owner before a video is posted," Cuban wrote. "Instead, they have become the bully on the block. They feel they have the legal right to tell every person who makes a living based on their creative efforts that they have to do business the Gootube way, and if you don't like it, sue us."

You do not need to be PhD to finish the puzzle: Gates will talk about "competitiveness" - his Legal Counsel about Google copyright infringement. Like was written here before Intellectual Property Rights Protection is the pillar of competitiveness in this country and Congressmen will connect the dots. Nobody would like to be named Enemy of the State. This Congressional Hearing could really happen and much sooner then I thought even this morning:

"WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile , Research) Chairman Bill Gates said on Wednesday that he feels "deep anxiety" about the current state of U.S. competitiveness.
In prepared remarks to be delivered to a Senate committee, Gates called for increased government investment in research and development, immigration reforms to attract more highly skilled workers to the United States, and improved educational opportunities.
"When I reflect on the state of American competitiveness today, my immediate feeling is not only one of pride, but also of deep anxiety. Too often we as a society are sacrificing the long-term good of our country in the interest of short-term gain," Gates said in testimony to be given to the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, chaired by Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy."

Recent developments with Microsoft attack on Google's "cavalier" approach to copyright protection" highlighted more deep and structural problems to the core of Google's Business. In a simple interpretation all this story with copyright issues is similar to open next to Nike Shop a Warehouse with cheap illegal copycats from Asia. "It will be very good for advertisement of your business" is very weak argument against criminal case. It is plain illegal and will kill Nike Shop. "Companies (Google S.) that create no content of their own, and make money solely on the backs of other people's content, are raking in billions through advertising revenue and IPOs," says Rubin, who oversees copyright and trade secret law at Microsoft." Here Microsoft is right and actually is rising the issue which could save trillions of Dollars to struggling US economy. Even more, until this "too liberal", criminal in nature approach is allowed (I think nobody cares so far and do not understand far reaching complications) it is killing USA economy and eroding the last resource of defence - Intellectual Property Rights. If you are not aware USA was the Driving force from 70s for constructing "IP" infrastructure and Patent and Copyright Protection. It was clear then that industrial wars will be lost to Countries with cheap labor and loose environmental policies. The only place to be for Developed World is in High End of Value Chain products depending on Technological Advances and "IP" protection. Whole industries blossomed on this concept and Google is assaulting one of the last pillars of US Economy. Take out Hollywood, Music, MSFT, Oracle, Cisco and nothing will be to Export from this country! US Dollar will seize to Exist. Will we have Congressional Hearing about it I am not sure, but what happen to Steel makers and Manufacturing we all know now. Google is in structural crisis to its business model, which is build around "open space" WEB and with "open sources" - available to others Technology delivering Similar Customer Satisfaction. It is not unique in plane English - Search is Commodity, as Buffet would put it (in a bad sense of this world) and Competitor is just click away or even in the same application like with Vista. Google was able to build Franchise because for a while its technology was better or perceived to be better by customers. But now Google is feeling the hit: for its Business it needs clicks on ADs, for this it needs Traffic which started to fall diverted to New More Content Interesting Places where customer can easily satisfy his Search need without getting out to Google. Contrary to Yahoo! which is Media Company and creating its own content Google's buying YouTube for 1.6 billion was desperate move trying to capitalise its Franchise further on "borrowed for nothing" others' content, they new it will be a lot of Capex and the monetising model was not in place, but they can not imaging that Copyright issue will put YouTube on the spot immediately. With economy falling in Recession (I do not buy the spin about "blip" in the Bull Market this Reaction is the last chance to get out of Tech) advertising will be cut First. Now Google will feel the pressure on all fronts: Growth of Revenue is falling and will fall further due to Yahoo! and others competition, Capex and costs are rising, payment for content on YouTube will add to cost structure and monetising is still not clear and everybody who is depending on IP rights will be waging war against it. Margins will be squeezed further and Free cash Flow will fall below 2006 level opening Pandora's box of Unsustainable Valuation with slowing growth, earnings without Tax Manipulation will be lower in Q1 2007 and will follow by Crash in stock price. Investors finally with the help of SEC will open their eyes to reality but it could be too late again. Today's Upgrade of UBS which leaked yesterday was done exactly at the low channel support line of Google DownTrend it is no more then act Of Mercy of God to those who did not sell yet, all these "strange" coincidence including perfect match of maximum pain on Options Expiration days will have its time in Court one day. Regarding UBS, they happen to have lending value for Tenke mining from 0.9 CAD up to 5.0 CAD and then "suddenly" found that it is too risky: lot of people lost their Tenke mining shares in Margin calls and somebody got them for cheap. Should I remind you that TNK.to today is above 16.0 CAD? UBS had Strong buy on ENRON and Worldcom as well, good luck following and welcome to 2001 again. Step out of the woods and look around: maybe you are missing something - it could be your money.

"SEATTLE, March 5 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile , Research) is set to launch a blistering attack on rival Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) on Tuesday for what the software giant argues is the Web search leader's "cavalier" approach to copyright protection.
In prepared remarks to be delivered to the Association of American Publishers, Microsoft Associate General Counsel Thomas Rubin argues that Google's move into new media markets has come at the expense of publishers of books, videos and software.
The Microsoft attorney's comments echo arguments at the heart of a 16-month-old copyright lawsuit against Google brought by five major book publishers and organized by the Association of American Publishers, an industry trade group.
"Companies that create no content of their own, and make money solely on the backs of other people's content, are raking in billions through advertising revenue and IPOs," says Rubin, who oversees copyright and trade secret law at Microsoft.
"Google takes the position that everything may be freely copied unless the copyright owner notifies Google and tells it to stop," said Rubin, noting that Microsoft takes the position of seeking the copyright owner's consent before they copy...con'd"

"Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
From the Inside!
CIGA Rusty Bayonet is on the frontline of what he speaks of! Throwing out your gold in light of what is occurring constitutes madness.
I am in there with a bag knowing I might have to suffer some pain, but not concerned as pain is part of success. No pain, no gain is a well known mantra of the professional trader. It is that hat I wear today as I see golden opportunity.
CIGA Rusty Bayonet’s Commentary”
"Apparently they have 11 warehouse banks. These banks issue high interest rate lines used to temporarily house loans for sale. These lines are not meant for permanent portfolio holdings. Because of the massive amount of buy-backs from these lines, they are being used up for buy-backs requiring NEW cash in a trust account for essentially a security deposit, which we learned they are having to go back and ask for waivers on.
The problem is these 11 warehouse banks have been upping the lines to accommodate massive buy-backs for a year. We are just hearing about it now. They have thrown enough good money after bad money and most are giving lenders margin calls, not waiving margin requirements. At this point knowing that 5 of 11 have issued a margin waiver and 6 are still outstanding, it is first to collect collateral wins. The 11 warehouse banks have to get those scratch and dent loans that are currently sitting on their lines, try to make them right somehow for sale. The important item to note is the first person in to collect collateral on a margin call wins. They get in first position like a mortgage.
These lines are $1 billion a pop guys - it is not time to mess around. It is time to collect and salvage what you can especially now that it has become clear to everyone with blinders on that the housing market is not bottoming anytime soon.
I have seen this a hundred times over the past 20 years. The first to shut down the line and collect collateral wins. Without lines these guys can't fund loans unless they do it with cash, which they have little of.
Game over guys - major player companies will have to file for BK protection this week. Certainly not much later.
Also, I know for a fact there was not a single buyer of sub-prime mortgage bonds last week. I have a buddy who trades them and said he could not find a bidder down to 93. This is bad, bad stuff.
Essentially the sub-prime industry ceased to exist last week."

"Just in case you accept the spin that sub-prime problems only impact 1% of loans and shady companies…
GM is getting killed due to the mortgage industry collapse. It turns out GMAC has a HUGE ($57 billion) investments in sub-prime mortgages.
GMAC's Subprime Mortgages a Threat to GM 2007 The Associated Press
Many analysts say GMAC's home-lending unit, Residential Capital LLC, known as ResCap, is not immune to the industry stress. The unit is heavily involved in the subprime mortgage business _ making and investing in such loans itself and providing funds to other mortgage originators.
Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson estimated that loan-loss provisions and writedowns of mortgage securities at ResCap could cost GM $900 million to $950 million in cash charges in the first half of this year.
Among the areas of concern to analysts and investors: At the end of the third quarter, ResCap, long viewed as the crown jewel in GMAC's businesses, held $57 billion of subprime mortgages for investment, or 77 percent of its total loans held for investment. Its exposure to "residual interest" in mortgage securities _ the high-yielding slices that suffer some of the first losses if loan defaults are higher than expected _ was $1.4 billion as of Sept. 30"

More on Mortgage Crisis:

Are you still in doubt about the USD future? Rates will be CUT, REAL inflation will be UP with Bernanke reinflating (flooding with credit) in order to save economy from falling in to Deflation spin (remember 2002?) REAL RATES effectively will be NEGATIVE eroding further value of underling currency - USD: Gold and Silver containing Real Value will be flying high. Proper Juniors with Resources in the ground and trustworthy Team will be options without time value on Gold and Silver Bull Market Rise.

"4:28PM Google: Morgan Stanley Tech Conference summary (GOOG) 440.95 +2.27 : At the Morgan Stanley Tech conference, CEO says that they are just in the beginning stages in their ability to produce targeted ads. He sees moblie devices as a large driver for these ads, as that market is rapidly expanding. He says that just a small improvement in targeted ads will lead to very large top line growth. CEO notes that last spring, on-line video content begans it's huge growth spurt, and it is still rapidly accelerating. Their goal is to acquire as much licensed video content as possible, then adding advertisements to it. He says their new "Checkout feature" is central to the value of their ads. Regarding their large capex amounts, CEO says they are justified because without adding new servers and data centers, the co wouldn't have the capability to handle its growth and large traffic volumes. They purchase in anticipation of growth, rather than buying to keep up with demand."

With economy going into Recession, busting housing market and screaming consumers it is very right time to invest in "anticipation of Growth", Daily Reach Traffic is falling and YouTube with 15 million revenue in 2006 just eats all broadband, blades and electricity pushing margins further down rising cost on revenues from still the only one darling: Search.

"But even Schmidt conceded that although he felt the online video advertising business is "very large", he added that it is "unclear what the monetization will be like."

Important legal disclosure: all these ideas are Non science Fiction and author of this Blog is not connected to any of them should you decide that they are offensive in any way: he loves his country, believes in God, eats in MD and likes to listen to Bernanke (For his loyalty could you give a hint when helicopters are due?). Now when we have some spare time we can think using our secret weapon Common Sense (can I get trademark on this one?) about recent developments in the markets and remind to ourselves some Rules of Work or even Existence in this Game. Take some time and read some previous streaming consciousness. For me it is most important things written on this Blog. We must check the tires: it is going to be Formula 1 and any mistake could easily put us out of the game. Here we will listen to Professionals, not those guys selling to you shares at SOAP prices (Stupidly Overpriced Actively Promoted) and who are living at your expense but those who know how to manage Risk. Schumacher is teaching: when you suddenly see that you going to hit the WALL (I was screaming about it for ages, but you know it is always Sudden (even for me) you hit Brakes at once, because every second you start to think like maybe it is not wall, or maybe it is rather small wall you are losing precious seconds of your life. Situation is getting worse if Bernanke is speaking on your Stereo. You get totally lost and distracted, only thing you see is that Big Wall hit you and you can have a thought how on Earth it can reach you if you were thinking you were behind the wheel and wall supposed to be standing still and built for some time enough to be noticed? But we are not as bad and plain stupid - we must be in better shape then Average Joe who has some money to spend and decided that he is next to Warren. If you are going into the Game with this attitude you will do exactly this thing: money will be spent without the trace. Nothing wrong, racial or any disrespect to the Guy, this Breed is specially selected, nurtured with healthy dose of saturated fat in MD and well educated by Bubble Media for use as customers of Mutual Funds, Investments banks and other Financial Advisers. This is just plain simple observation of such people in Existence and of cause I hope that name "Average Joe" is not in somebody's Driving Licence and I am not making any personal assault. (Any chance that I am wrong please give me a buzz, our publishing house will give you a small price (subject to restrictions and conditions applied in such a way that better do not try) Now we can talk about the Game: it is all about Money and Power. Before Bernanke disclosed State Secret that money are not given by God and could be easily printed and brought by helicopters (wise guys like me even have prepared landing spot in the garden), people thought that money are restricted in its nature and there is not enough for everybody. Slow thinking ancients even link it to Gold or Silver so that money supply will be tightened and Value of Currency contained. Poor guys their brain power without healthy dose of saturated fat was not enough even to find out elegant way of borrowing One Value and return Back Another One which is much smaller because of Inflation, what they were thinking about - take One Measure of Gold and return the same measure of Gold back with small piece above it? Where is the Business? How can you get more money in those Dark Days: you have to take it from somebody and go to War because usually in the Past people were not given their money away without a fight (it was before IPO and Google). Civilisation made one more step next: if you have beaten them and took their Gold and Wives, why spoil the goods - let them work for nothing: difference between natural yield in the fields and cost of goods planted plus expenses on food for Slaves will be your margin and could be Traded for Gold again. Plain simple: no EBITDA, GAAP-ShmAAP and ProForma staff, what they were thinking about? How to meet the numbers? Should be 200 bushels of wheat, 20 slaves have eaten, 5 was suppose to be given to Managing Guy how could you explain that you have only 150? (If Managing Guy would disclose that he has stolen another 25 those barbarians will torn his head away, from one way - no more headache, but to live without Options which could be not Expensed or even Backdated is really tough). When Democracy spreaded, sorry... typo, Monarchy all across Europe, just to go to War and take others Gold and Slaves became difficult: it is not cool to go and hit on the head your own Cousin - it is called old fashioned Moral, you should have really good reason for it - it is called Justification. Here it is important not to slip and bring any Uneducated parallels to the recent past: we all have been told in plain simple English that Iraq is about Democracy, OIL is just happen to be there, here be careful with you fast conclusions. You know: "nobody is restricting your own ideas, if you would like to be wrong it is up to you". So back in medieval, while you were figuring out with your advisers the Reason for War and thinking who will be hit on the Head just your Cousin or maybe you as well, you have to do something - Trade comes to mind. Here it is important not slip again into any parallels: you know with this thinking from Cold War Times when you found the Reason but can not do nothing: their Nukes will hit you as well. How that Guy which is so close to New Democracy in the making, can not get it (actually he is so close that could be fortunate enough to be liberalised next)? We have all check ups in place, we are the best, we know what is really best for you and/or your country - relax, sell oil and enjoy your wives. Others are fine and our Citibank has very stable shareholder base. The problem here is that the Guy could be really bad and wrong and need some democracy infusion (one more on the cold side comes to mind), but there again happen to be OIL and GAS and all your good intentions could be burred under stupid suspicions by Brainiacs, you know, those who think before they say and are not talking from the heart. But here I got too much into Power and should refer you to Machiavelli , so lets get back to Money and talk about the Trade. You can Trade the goods produced by slaves or you can trade derivatives of the free trade - slaves itself. For these you need to organise few things: something like recent WTO where you can try to impose your rules, just because you know things better or maybe because you need to sell all those Useless Things when nobody can borrow more at home in order to buy them. It can help you for a while not to allow everybody put some Trade Barriers in the form of Tariffs and Export Quotas on the way of Bubble Gum, but at the same time with the same intelligent smile not to let those bastards to bring their Dirty Steel here and ruin our manufacturing sector. I will stop talking about dangerous possibilities of loosing the truth which is sad from the heart with all these thinking about double standards, because you know for a quick buck we can move our jobs to India overnight and WTO is not the problem there, everything for our corpora..typo, country's interests. (Slavery is not in fashion any more, we are talking about Globalisation and Mobile Workforce with lower paycheck here). I must say with time life got more and more complicated, that is why we are electing every four years the Guy who can take away all these controversy in Constitution and other Laws and apply them properly for our own good depending on the circumstances. Could you imaging that this Moral Thing became like a Rock on the way to Progress and he has even to find a Reason here at home to pursue our own fox, to send their kids to fight for others Democracy. After so many words and connecting so many dots you can get the picture - we come back to the Market. It was started by Industrial Revolution, after you can not sale slaves any more you have to produce something to sell it later, for this you need three things: Commodities or Raw materials from which Things will be created, educated Labor to run machines and Capital which will allow you to finance all your enterprise. First you could start with your Savings from slave trade, but then in order to be competitive on cost side you will need Economy of Scale and Expansion will cost you additional Capital which you will have to raise. You can try banks and your friends Capitalists (do Sharks have friends? I will give it a thought later), but when they can not lend you any more or just do not believe in your enterprise you have to go to the Market which is ideal place for crazy staff. By creation it is suppose to absorb excess of the capital from one guys called themselves investors and put it where it is needed (pockets of the founders and managers). In theory if you bought some shares of the Enterprise you are Owing it, but give it a try call to Sergey and get him to the account. In our Common Sense Secret Method we are using very simple plain English approach (we do know that it is not very good due to its foreign nature to us) without all esoteric slang things are getting Clear. If you run a windmill and have some excess capital, you can decide that you can get better return from shoe maker rather then expanding your own business. Here are few important assumptions for the Health of the Market: you must be very Dumb in shoe making (remember your expertise is in windmill business (any Tech will do for Average Joe), you must think that people there are not so Rotten as in your industry (you will never invest in your neighbours windmill, they are all crooks) people in General are subject to Authority, so guys who will prepack IPO of shoe maker will put guy from Harvard in charge. And you must have other Market participants like analysts with Buy recommendation (who work for the bank which is selling IPO or have some position in shares and need to sell) and People managing Other's People Money. This is very special breed -your difference with them is that you are losing your Capital, they could lose their job in worst case scenario. Usually they are fine if the value of the Fund plunge together with Market, it is called Benchmarking. Also now you have bring in the picture Black Boxes or Hedge Funds called so because nobody have a hint what they are doing. Created in Thousands you know about Ten still alive and can feel when one is busted when Goldies and Commodities are hit again - somebody is liquidated. Why it is so Cynical Picture, because if one can be so cynical about Evolution, only then you can hope to have some success in the Market or simply stay alive here, it is Machiavelli at its best with polished and legalised system of departing Fool and his money, it is called Zero Sum Game. The whole idea is that in order for someone to gain some money someone else must lose, inflation and currency depreciation are very helpful here. You can get 5% return on your bonds but if Real Value of bonds will drop by Real Inflation of 8.5% you "will receive Negative Rate Of Return" of 3.5% Uncle Sam have gained on you 3.5% and you lost it. "The issue today is the same as it has been throughout all history, whether man shall be allowed to govern himself or be ruled by a small elite." --Thomas Jefferson. Call it Old Boys Circle, Masons or What Ever, just remember you are at the very bottom of pyramid: all information is at the top and you are fed by what is decided necessary for you to know. Business Founders, Managers and their Bankers together with Black Boxes have much more clues about what is going on in Shoe Making Shop and if they are selling and you are still buying you have not deserve your money: Universal Justice has been performed. Their power and Level of Moral in Free Economy - just look at Google's closing prices on options expiration days. Now we have the Race Drivers profile and you understand why it is the Game. Still Expecting Fair Play? You are playing against Government with its own Agenda and FIAT currency in Play. They are making Statistics, funding PPT and manipulating Markets. Stakes are very high, almost life or death if not in physical sense then in political one for sure. People in Charge are ready to Sacrify...your freedom, pension and wealth for their survival. PPT is Plunge Protection Team created after Bust in 1987. You can see their footprint in Futures market when Suddenly market is turning on a dime. They could manipulate Google, Gold and Silver markets, affect market of Oil, and make some noise in Forex Trade. Frightened? You should not be if you are still here. This Grip is weakening, Markets can not be manipulated forever, structural changes are getting worse when cosmetics are applied. The main Idea is that USA is no longer Superpower on its own chosen role of World's Policemen, its cost is too much and it is not respected any more. We have Empire of Debt. Read the book. It could be your best investment this year. The chosen Reserve Currency of Choice US Dollar is No More Good. Local Elites have grown up and would like their Cut, they do not like to do what they told. Power is shifting from Overburden with Debt, stretched in Wars Empire to the new and young Players. While USA was shifting into the Abyss of financial Economy new Tigers were building factories, Consumer in the West is so tired with consumption of Not Needed Things that you have to produce it in China, bring it back, give them money to buy it and then give them to switch to another credit card in order not to pay the interest for a while. Housing Bubble has helped a lot, Home ATM kept juice running all these years, but not any more. We are in Recession yield curve is inverted for months now, Housing Bubble is Bursting, WEB 2.0 Bubble is next. What to do PPT: first to kill the Gold, it is important that USD will still be considered as "Safe Heaven" and money will flow into the Bond market to finance credit account deficit otherwise gold will be 1000 and Death to USD by Thousand Cuts. Second is make Plunge into Orderly Decline, not to make a Snowball effect devastating. What will happen next? The truth is Orderly Decline in USD is in the interest of USA it is the only way to inflate the Debts out. I think it is very vivid imagination to expect any interest rise, some more "orderly decline" in the market and they will need to be cut just to keep things together. Consumer can not help any more: Housing Bubble killed its ability to spend: more and more people are moving into the Negative Equity and Negative Savings territory. Do not believe its is well contained, do you remember Alan? And his fragmented housing market subject to local valuations, why is Subprime mortgage market is busting and he start to use sacred word Recession (possible, probable - respect the confused old man and tell him someone it is already happen). How far the pain has spread if "Goldman, Merrill Almost `Junk,' Their Own Traders Say". With Nominal Rates moving Down and Real Rates moving Up (because of inflation and your need to finance current account deficit you have to give discount on your IOU - higher rates) we will be back in Negative rate territory like in 2002 and Gold and Silver will blossom again. That is why Gold is The Enemy of the State: one look at the price and you can get the idea about inflation and real economy and political health. You can try manipulate it but you can not Outlaw it: Russian are buying it, Chinese are buying, even Arab friends are counting their beans separately. We can expect deep in the Goldies which has already happen with the General Market and then powerful move up from oversold condition and it could happen at any time with Video Game in Persian Gulf. What about Commodities, we are fortunate enough that Earth will not stop spinning around with USA in recession, I do not thing that somebody will put the World into the World War for Resources but there is some risk. Check the number of people on our planet, from 1960 to 1999 Earth's population Doubled! Most of these people are living in emerging markets. Do you remember law of Diminishing Marginal Value it is when your satisfaction feelings of change of a cam with 8 mega pixels to 9 mega pixels can not get even close to the excitement of the sound of First Flushed Toilet in your life in China. If you are building hundreds airports across the country, moving people from the coast into 40 newly build 10 million people each cities you do not need first credit cards, SEO marketing games or Search - you need Cu for your wires, Oil for your engines and Uranium for your Electricity needs. And you need to diversify your 1 Trillion Reserve from Orderly falling USD. And Very important thing: IT IS NOT FREE Market at all! Do not get me wrong China is Great but Markets are still better regulated here. That is why I do not invest in the Dragon but in its food which is made buy Western Standard (for example Tenke Mining). Here is the advantage: if communist China decided to build 40 cities and hundreds airports they will be build, punishment is not bonus taken back, but life spent in prison. Fear is much stronger motivation then Greed. That is why Sell Offs are more sharp and sudden then the moves up. Back to Schumaher: it was Sudden, but you have been prepared, you have hit the Brake: sold all speculative positions which could be affected by Tech Slump, No Margin - PTT could be Nasty: Margin will kill you, profit taken from Calls on Goldies hopefully which was overbought and Some Uranium Juniors which were flying too high, with cool head you did some profit on the first Plunge. Will be perfect to make some money on PUTs on Tech in order to invest Profit later in your beloved Juniors when they will be on sale, but it is not for everyone you have to Play Value and Time is against you. You are not selling your Core Juniors positions: it could be stupid, but you know how it is difficult to chase them with tiny markets when they are Rocketing Away.