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Monday, October 27, 2008
TNR Gold has a "conditional" back in right of 25% in the Northern half (with higher grade core according to MAI) of the property. Now company is conducting a legal action against Xtrata to remove the "condition". More could be found here.
"Minera Andes files technical report confirming large copper resource at Los Azules
Friday October 24, 5:07 pm ET
SPOKANE, WA, Oct. 24 /CNW/ - Minera Andes Inc. (TSX: MAI and US OTC: MNEAF) is pleased to report that a technical report in support of a resource estimate for Minera Andes' Los Azules copper project in Argentina has been filed in accordance with National Instrument 43-101.andis available at www.sedar.com.
The new technical report, by Minera Andes' independent consultant Donald B. Tschabrun, MAusIMM, of Tetra Tech in conjunction with Robert Sim, P.Geo., an independent qualified person as defined by NI 43-101 and Bruce Davis, FAusIMM, is entitled "Los Azules Copper Project San Juan Province, Argentina, NI-43-101 Technical Report," and summarized in a Minera Andes news release dated September 8, 2008 .
The report supports the independent resource estimate showing an inferred resource at Los Azules of 922 million tonnes, grading 0.55 percent copper, containing 11.2 billion pounds at 0.35 percent total copper ("CuT") cutoff. This resource occupies an area approximately 3.7 km by 1 km in size and contains a high-grade near surface copper core in the north (TNR Gold option area - S) (see maps in Sept. 8, 2008 news release).
Mr. Allen Ambrose, president of Minera Andes, an appropriately Qualified Person as defined by NI 43-101 for the Los Azules project, has reviewed and approved the content of this press release.
Minera Andes is a gold, silver and copper exploration company working in Argentina. The Company holds about 304,000 acres of mineral exploration land in Argentina including the 49% owned producing San José silver/gold mine. In addition to exploring the Los Azules copper project in San Juan province other exploration properties, primarily silver and gold, are being evaluated in southern Argentina. The Corporation presently has 189,621,935 shares issued and outstanding."
Monday, October 20, 2008
Warren Buffet is buying Equities, Jim Rogers is buying Commodities, I am in a very good company and buying Commodity Equities.
US Dollar has rallied today to the new high of 83.22. It has rallied contrary to all last days actions together with a big rally in General markets with Dow +4.67%, S&P +4.77% and Nasdaq +3.43. Is it because of Lehman settlement day? I am not sure, but the higher it goes the faster it will come back. Last time I gave such a comment was about Google GOOG riding to 700. Treasuries had a very volatile day and rallied in price together with markets.
But the real action was in Amex Gold Bugs Index HUI which is +9.38%
GDX +11.53%, AUY +11.3%, SSRI +17.75%, SLW +14.86%. Now we have last confirmation of continued Bull market in Gold: Gold miners took off before Gold and Silver. As I have mentioned it is important that Gold will confirm H&S Bullish reversal with RS at above 750USD.
Gold rallied in Asia to 810 and closed up 1.66% at 795 in NY. Silver was up 3.85% to 9.71.
As we have discussed before, public has a very short memory and we are now in an Election Rally. Greed is taking over the Fear and VIX is down almost 25% to 52.97. Actually this level of VIX over 50 was an entry point for a lot of professionals and Rally is only in its start phase.
Gold has rallied today even with US Dollar in a very strong rally, it has rallied against all FIAT currencies. Looks like FED do not like to have any chances and is preparing next Rate Cut.
Once Gold will cleared 800, HUI and GDX (trashed by forced selling into the levels of Gold at 500USD) with all Majors will be in a Rocket stage. Canadian Venture has shown some life with +4.1%. TSX was up 7.2%.
Positive emotions will spill over into the Juniors with 25-50% intraday rallies within next few weeks. Those who did not Sell will enjoy the Rally. You can not simply accumulate any meaningful position in this sector without driving the price. We were suffering the most, we will gain the biggest. M&A will be the driver of wealth creation with five and ten buggers to come into play again.
By the way all stimulus packagers are more then welcome: we need a lot of inflation fuel for our Bull in Gold, Silver and Commodities.
Jim Rogers Buys Agriculture, Considering Metals, Oil GDX, FXI, EWZ, AUY, SSRI, SLW, CZX.v, TNR.v
at 1:19 PM"Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers bought gold coins in Frankfurt last week, added more agriculture commodities today and is considering industrial metals and crude oil.
``Agriculture is cheap,'' Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told reporters at an ETF Securities Ltd. meeting in London today. ``The fundamentals for most commodities are not impaired.''
The 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index have dropped 21 percent this year as falling equities, reduced lending and slumps in manufacturing and construction trimmed demand. Copper is down 47 percent from a record in July.
``We're in this period of forced liquidation,'' Rogers said. ``This bull market in commodities is here because of supply and demand.''
``Excessive'' amounts of cash added to the banking system have ``always led to rising prices,'' Rogers said. The Federal Reserve rescued American International Group Inc. with an $85 billion loan last month, the U.K. last week announced plans to spend 37 billion pounds ($63.4 billion) on Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, HBOS Plc and Lloyds TSB Group Plc and ING Groep today got a 10 billion-euro ($13.3 billion) lifeline from the Netherlands.
Commodities had gained for six years before 2008 as underinvestment in refineries, mines and land sent prices for oil, gold and wheat to records earlier this year. Oil has dropped 50 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel in July as tightening credit choked demand.
``Farmers cannot get sufficient loans to plant their crops at the moment even though they've been farmers for decades,'' Rogers said. ``Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine. People cannot get loans for their inventory which is part of the forced liquidation. So all of this also means even less supply.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: October 20, 2008 11:46 EDT "
``Agriculture is cheap,'' Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told reporters at an ETF Securities Ltd. meeting in London today. ``The fundamentals for most commodities are not impaired.''
The 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index have dropped 21 percent this year as falling equities, reduced lending and slumps in manufacturing and construction trimmed demand. Copper is down 47 percent from a record in July.
``We're in this period of forced liquidation,'' Rogers said. ``This bull market in commodities is here because of supply and demand.''
``Excessive'' amounts of cash added to the banking system have ``always led to rising prices,'' Rogers said. The Federal Reserve rescued American International Group Inc. with an $85 billion loan last month, the U.K. last week announced plans to spend 37 billion pounds ($63.4 billion) on Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, HBOS Plc and Lloyds TSB Group Plc and ING Groep today got a 10 billion-euro ($13.3 billion) lifeline from the Netherlands.
Commodities had gained for six years before 2008 as underinvestment in refineries, mines and land sent prices for oil, gold and wheat to records earlier this year. Oil has dropped 50 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel in July as tightening credit choked demand.
``Farmers cannot get sufficient loans to plant their crops at the moment even though they've been farmers for decades,'' Rogers said. ``Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine. People cannot get loans for their inventory which is part of the forced liquidation. So all of this also means even less supply.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: October 20, 2008 11:46 EDT "
Sunday, October 19, 2008
U.K. Government to Raise Spending, Borrowing to Ease Downturn. Beat Depression by Inflation.
at 9:21 AMIt is very important development.
This could bring some wealth preserving strategy into US Corp. as well. As I have mentioned before: Infrastructure spending is the best place for all these newly printed dollars. At least part of it which will not be spent on debt servicing will create new base for a future growth. During Depression in 1929 USA has build their interstate road network.
You are fighting with inflation at least most dire Depression consequences: unemployment and stagnation in industrial output due to consumer debt squeeze.
Here where decoupling will take place: Russia will do it with 500 billion in reserves, China will do it with 1.9 trillion reserves, USA will have to do it with 1-2 trillion deficit this fiscal year.
This is the best outlook for our Gold, Silver and Commodity play.
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. government will step up public spending projects and increase borrowing in a bid to curb the country's biggest economic slump since 1991, ministers including Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said.
The U.K. will prioritize spending on housing, energy and small businesses as well as bring forward construction projects on schools and hospitals, Darling told the Sunday Telegraph in an interview published today. The government will increase debt to provide the funding, the newspaper reported him as saying.
``We will get the country through this period in every way we can,'' U.K. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said on the BBC's Sunday A.M. television show today. ``The costs of doing too little will be greater than if we take the action to maintain spending and investment in the real economy, in public services and infrastructure.''
The U.K. will prioritize spending on housing, energy and small businesses as well as bring forward construction projects on schools and hospitals, Darling told the Sunday Telegraph in an interview published today. The government will increase debt to provide the funding, the newspaper reported him as saying.
``We will get the country through this period in every way we can,'' U.K. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said on the BBC's Sunday A.M. television show today. ``The costs of doing too little will be greater than if we take the action to maintain spending and investment in the real economy, in public services and infrastructure.''
Formula is simple, but so painful to stay on: more supply of treasuries to finance bailouts, more discount - higher Yield demanded. Buffet sells and buying equities, Bill Gross is not advising to buy Treasuries - world will listen. Higher Yield, higher Long Term rates, with artificially collapsing Short term rates determined by FED we are in a Negative Rate territory again like in 2002. All these talks about Deflation were at its high in 2002-2003 when rates were kept at 1% and Gold Bull has started its Run. When FED is choosing between debasing the currency US Dollar in reflation attempt and Depression with Deflation, Japan is all over their eyes: they will always err on Inflation side.
Warren Buffett leaves Treasuries to embrace equities
Spending on gold nears $3bn as investors flee shares
Investors spent $2.8bn (£1.6bn) on gold on world stock exchanges in the third quarter this year, as individuals and companies fled volatile share markets.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), 145 tons of gold were bought on stock exchanges in the three months to September. This meant that gold held by investors on the exchanges hit 1,000 tons for the first time since the metal was introduced on the US bourse in 2004.
Natalie Dempster, the WGC's head of investment, said: "The question we get from high net worth individuals and funds is no longer 'why should we invest in gold?', but 'where can we go to buy it?' "
Gold offers a product with a more stable price in the current market than company shares.
James Turk, founder of Gold Money, the Jersey-based company that stores precious metals for investors, said he had seen his customer base triple in September. He added that at the end of the third quarter, the company was looking after gold and silver deposits worth $400m, more than double the value a year earlier.
Mr Turk said: "Gold is seen as a natural safe haven given the uncertainty in the banking system and the volatility in the stock market."
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), 145 tons of gold were bought on stock exchanges in the three months to September. This meant that gold held by investors on the exchanges hit 1,000 tons for the first time since the metal was introduced on the US bourse in 2004.
Natalie Dempster, the WGC's head of investment, said: "The question we get from high net worth individuals and funds is no longer 'why should we invest in gold?', but 'where can we go to buy it?' "
Gold offers a product with a more stable price in the current market than company shares.
James Turk, founder of Gold Money, the Jersey-based company that stores precious metals for investors, said he had seen his customer base triple in September. He added that at the end of the third quarter, the company was looking after gold and silver deposits worth $400m, more than double the value a year earlier.
Mr Turk said: "Gold is seen as a natural safe haven given the uncertainty in the banking system and the volatility in the stock market."
WITH FINANCIAL MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD COLLAPSING, about the only thing that still glitters is gold.
Unlike just about every other asset, gold has risen in the past year. Though it fell markedly last week, to $785.10, it's still up 3% from a year ago.
Gold has "shown its stripes as something investors will turn to," says Leanne Baker, founder of Investor Resources, a metals and mining advisory based in Mill Valley, Calif.
Unlike just about every other asset, gold has risen in the past year. Though it fell markedly last week, to $785.10, it's still up 3% from a year ago.
Gold has "shown its stripes as something investors will turn to," says Leanne Baker, founder of Investor Resources, a metals and mining advisory based in Mill Valley, Calif.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Global investor Jim Rogers says the Federal Reserve is "Unleashing an Inflationary Holocaust" on us all Calgary, Alberta CANADA, October 14, 2008 /FSC/ - Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (AFIP - 0), Legendary global investor Jim Rogers says the bail-outs being conducted by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are "unleashing an inflationary holocaust' on us all. The US runs massive current and fiscal account deficits; therefore, the trillions of dollars involved in the bail-outs will inevitably be printed as the only realistic way to pay for them is via inflation. To put $3 trillion into perspective, it took the US over 200 years to reach approximately $10 trillion in money supply and no more than 12 weeks to commit to another $3 trillion and counting. Jim Rogers continues to advocate investments in agriculture commodities and farmland in selected markets - including Canada. As part of his belief that western Canadian agriculture has a bright future ahead of it, Jim Rogers recently joined the advisory board of Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership a Calgary based, agriculture, private equity firm. Agcapita's investment team has over 40 years private equity and fund management experience and over $1 billion in total career transactions. The team currently manages a group of private equity funds with almost CAD$ 100 million of assets under management and previously managed a group of emerging market funds with almost C$500 million in assets for one of the largest banks in Europe.
Strong Growth in China, strong Growth in Japan. I will not buy this stock - there are more appealing bargains in my commodities sector. But the story is interesting and it is talking about Asian economy health. Intel produces chips which are used mostly in Asian Electronics producing countries. Orders for chips are placed before production cycle and bullish guidance is very important: producers are not expecting End of the world in the next 6 months. Stock itself is like value play with 3.5% dividend. It is more then 10 year treasury bond! Another bullish sign of extreme valuations.
If you ask me what am I looking for: for more value: I do not like to be restricted to consumer even in Growing Developing markets. I like solid production cycle in infrastructure developments like Power plants in China and Electric grids in Russia, China and Brazil. Like pumps in Oil Pipelines. Markets up or down they will be built. What you need is Copper. Now Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc FCX is trading at 30 dollars with 6.5% dividend! Yamana Gold AUY is even more leveraged to the price of Copper.
So it is again ends with a Question is it the end of the world or a Buying opportunity of a lifetime?
Future rich and poor people are answering this question these days all over the world.
Next week will be very important. Will Gold perform Bullish Head and Shoulder Reversal pattern with LS at 777.70, Head at 739.8 and RS above 750? If the market will rally further into election after painted not without PPT help a Double Bottom reversal and public will listen to Mr Buffet, Treasuries will continue their bleeding and US Dollar will go down from its recent high. Gold is still holding the best in a recent financial melt down and at least part of the money will be allocated to its real safe Heaven status.
On another hand even Major Producers are beaten into the ground with General Equities as their is no tomorrow. They are screaming Buy if the Gold will hold at its Reversal.
If you Buy this theory GDX will be the best choice without stock picking efforts, othervise biggest in the sector Barrick Gold ABX and Newmont NEM will get attention first, Yamana Gold AUY is highly leveraged to copper recovery on Inflation Play in Americas.
Market will be surprised in this scenario by earnings Power of Gold producers now: Gold is holding well and all other cost base commodities with the most important OIL went down. Companies should show great margins from this last Q of operations.
Once it will show some life greed will come back into sector and the the only supply of Reserves will come into play - Juniors which are given for free right now like TNR Gold TNR.v and Bravo Venture BVG.v.
If you think that Dow is too volatile these days welcome to Silver market. It is another victim of "Used to Be Smart" guys selling their positions. Believe it or not but we are back on a long term trend support. Should Depression becomes Recession and Inflation after FEDs medicine, Silver ride will be very impressive. It is very important to see when the US Dollar will give up to pretend to be "just fine" and Gold will take off, next will be Silver. Juniors were so much sold off now that you can buy them at levels of almost Beginning of this Bull Market in Silver. Do not forget that the market is so tiny, that any money inflows will move it exponentially.
First money will come to the big names like Silver Wheaton SLW and Silver Standard SSRI, then to the Juniors like Silverstone Resources SST.v a small brother of SLW.
Buy when the Blood on the streets, now in this sector is a tsunami of blood, once it will be substituted by all these printed trillions, silver will shine again.
When Mr Buffet buys stocks it means that he can see value in five-ten years time. Zinc price at current level is showing that there is end of the world. Please pay attention to the price level of around 0.5 USD in 2003 when inventories were almost five times higher than now. Zinc has become a Call Option without time decay on Reflation Recovery. Justification and reasonal explanation now to these level of prices all across commodities are that it is deleveraging and it is certanly true. But once speculators are out Industry is buying and what is more important is securing supply of Raw Materials at this distressed levels. It is interesting how much discount is needed to spur wave of buying again.
Canada Zinc Metals CZX.v with high grade deposit in Canada is trading now at 0.25CAD down from 1.0CAD few months ago and down from closed financing of 7 million dollars at 0.9CAD just two weeks ago.
Should the world continue to spin and economy will show signs of life in China, Brazil and India this distressed level of price will be a memory.
"Reserve currency of choice" and "Safe heaven" in the market Sell Off. When this insanity will end?
10,331,139,000,845.92 Total debt of USA Corp. and rising.
Only last week US has sold Treasuries for One Trillion dollars according to Jim Paplava.
Treasury Bubble is collapsing now, flight to Treasuries was in Fear that banking system will collapse and by owing Treasuries you are reducing the bank risk to mere Custodian function, when you will get your Treasuries even if the bank will fail., financial system was saved and there is no incentive to own Treasuries at a Yield below of Inflation rate any more. Game is over.
This is the most important for Us Dollar, Gold, Silver and Commodities:
"U.S. 10-Year Notes Fall on Concern About Supply, Bank Program "Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ten-year Treasury notes dropped for a second week as investors focused on the prospect of greater U.S. borrowing and the impact of the Bush administration's plan for the U.S. to invest in banks.
Yields on the notes rose as the government said it posted a record $455 billion budget deficit for the year ended Sept. 30. Morgan Stanley has predicted the shortfall may almost quadruple as the Treasury uses $700 billion to rescue the financial system from the credit crisis. Stocks gained for the week, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rising the most in eight months.
``People are still trying to get a handle on the supply, when it's going to come,'' said James Collins, an interest-rate strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in Chicago, one of the 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. ``It's obvious it's going to be enormous.''
The yield on the 10-year note rose 6 basis points for the week, or 0.06 percentage point, to 3.93 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. It touched a 2 1/2-month high of 4.10 percent on Oct. 15. The 4 percent security maturing in August 2018 fell 15/32, or $4.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 17/32.
Two-year note yields declined 3 basis points to 1.62 percent.
Treasury 10-year notes underperformed two-year notes amid speculation the government will conduct a second set of special auctions to relieve shortages in the market for borrowing and lending Treasuries. The U.S. on Oct. 8 and 9 sold $40 billion in debt over two days in special sales it announced on Oct. 8.
Awaiting an Announcement
``On a daily basis, people have been looking for the Treasury to come in and make another announcement,'' said Tom Tucci, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at RBC Capital Markets, the investment-banking arm of Canada's biggest lender. Treasuries with five-, seven- and 10-year maturities ``had been hit really hard'' as traders anticipated new auctions.
The government last week also said it would continue increasing sizes of regular debt sales and consider selling new maturities, and would make any changes to its auction calendar at its Nov. 5 refunding announcement.
``I don't think you buy Treasuries,'' said Bill Gross, who is co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. and runs the $129.6 billion Total Return Fund. He spoke in an interview on Bloomberg Radio from Newport Beach, California, where Pimco is based. ``They're obvious flight-to-quality vehicles.''
Confidence to Revive
The efforts of governments and central banks worldwide may restore investor confidence in ``weeks,'' Gross said. The U.S. and other nations have agreed to spend almost $3 trillion to rescue banks imperiled by the credit crisis. The Treasury on Oct. 14 said it plans to buy $250 billion of shares in U.S. banks and offer guarantees on new debt.
Rates on three-month Treasury bills, viewed as a haven because of their short maturities, rose 61 basis points for the week to 0.79 percent, the highest level since Oct. 7.
The S&P 500 Index climbed 4.6 percent, the most since February, capping a volatile week for equities. Investor Warren Buffett said he's buying stocks. Writing in the New York Times, he said ``a simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread.''
Traders added to bets the Fed will cut borrowing costs for a second time this month at its Oct. 29 meeting to bolster the economy. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed traders saw a 38 percent chance the Fed will cut its target rate for overnight bank loans by a half-percentage point to 1 percent at its Oct. 29 meeting. The odds were 28 percent a week earlier. The rest of the bets were for a quarter-point reduction.
Signs of Thawing
Reports showed the economy slowing. Construction of single- family homes plunged to the lowest level in 26 years, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Industrial production fell last month by the most in almost 34 years, the Fed said Oct. 16, and retail sales declined in September for a third month, the longest in at least 16 years, Commerce said Oct. 15.
Even so, money markets exhibited signs of thawing. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for borrowing in dollars overnight fell for a sixth day yesterday, slipping 27 basis points, to 1.67 percent. That's the lowest level since September 2004.
The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, fell 1 percentage point last week to 3.63 percentage points. It was 4.64 percentage points on Oct. 10.
To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net
Yields on the notes rose as the government said it posted a record $455 billion budget deficit for the year ended Sept. 30. Morgan Stanley has predicted the shortfall may almost quadruple as the Treasury uses $700 billion to rescue the financial system from the credit crisis. Stocks gained for the week, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rising the most in eight months.
``People are still trying to get a handle on the supply, when it's going to come,'' said James Collins, an interest-rate strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in Chicago, one of the 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. ``It's obvious it's going to be enormous.''
The yield on the 10-year note rose 6 basis points for the week, or 0.06 percentage point, to 3.93 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. It touched a 2 1/2-month high of 4.10 percent on Oct. 15. The 4 percent security maturing in August 2018 fell 15/32, or $4.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 17/32.
Two-year note yields declined 3 basis points to 1.62 percent.
Treasury 10-year notes underperformed two-year notes amid speculation the government will conduct a second set of special auctions to relieve shortages in the market for borrowing and lending Treasuries. The U.S. on Oct. 8 and 9 sold $40 billion in debt over two days in special sales it announced on Oct. 8.
Awaiting an Announcement
``On a daily basis, people have been looking for the Treasury to come in and make another announcement,'' said Tom Tucci, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at RBC Capital Markets, the investment-banking arm of Canada's biggest lender. Treasuries with five-, seven- and 10-year maturities ``had been hit really hard'' as traders anticipated new auctions.
The government last week also said it would continue increasing sizes of regular debt sales and consider selling new maturities, and would make any changes to its auction calendar at its Nov. 5 refunding announcement.
``I don't think you buy Treasuries,'' said Bill Gross, who is co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. and runs the $129.6 billion Total Return Fund. He spoke in an interview on Bloomberg Radio from Newport Beach, California, where Pimco is based. ``They're obvious flight-to-quality vehicles.''
Confidence to Revive
The efforts of governments and central banks worldwide may restore investor confidence in ``weeks,'' Gross said. The U.S. and other nations have agreed to spend almost $3 trillion to rescue banks imperiled by the credit crisis. The Treasury on Oct. 14 said it plans to buy $250 billion of shares in U.S. banks and offer guarantees on new debt.
Rates on three-month Treasury bills, viewed as a haven because of their short maturities, rose 61 basis points for the week to 0.79 percent, the highest level since Oct. 7.
The S&P 500 Index climbed 4.6 percent, the most since February, capping a volatile week for equities. Investor Warren Buffett said he's buying stocks. Writing in the New York Times, he said ``a simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread.''
Traders added to bets the Fed will cut borrowing costs for a second time this month at its Oct. 29 meeting to bolster the economy. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed traders saw a 38 percent chance the Fed will cut its target rate for overnight bank loans by a half-percentage point to 1 percent at its Oct. 29 meeting. The odds were 28 percent a week earlier. The rest of the bets were for a quarter-point reduction.
Signs of Thawing
Reports showed the economy slowing. Construction of single- family homes plunged to the lowest level in 26 years, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Industrial production fell last month by the most in almost 34 years, the Fed said Oct. 16, and retail sales declined in September for a third month, the longest in at least 16 years, Commerce said Oct. 15.
Even so, money markets exhibited signs of thawing. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for borrowing in dollars overnight fell for a sixth day yesterday, slipping 27 basis points, to 1.67 percent. That's the lowest level since September 2004.
The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, fell 1 percentage point last week to 3.63 percentage points. It was 4.64 percentage points on Oct. 10.
To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net
Friday, October 17, 2008
US Dollar is hesitating at retesting resent High. Black cross is an indecision by the market players. Everything is ready for gravity to make its work. Fundamental reason for recent US Dollar rally is a Depression Fear, Buying of Treasuries as a safe heaven during banking crises. Now it will be substutute overnight by inflation Fear, dollar will go down, Treasuries will sell off. Gold, Silver and Commodities will come back. I must say that I am very impressed with Mr Secretary of Treasury. Using technical means of manipulation in the currency markets, trashing Gold and Silver by PPT allowed to crash commodities and to bring market so fast to the important bottom that now we can speak about the value in General market companies oversold by Fear. Well done. Know your "enemy", not everybody will make it through all these manipulations.
You can not manipulate markets forever, something has to give. This time it will be Treasuries US Dollar.
First Fear is coming Down: banks are safely nationalised by FIAT printing presses. Second Greed come back after Panic: Public is getting on the buying mode in Equities. Third money will start to flow in the economy and the wise money will look for a value in a coming inflation tsunami. We need just 1% of global equity market into Gold, Silver and Junior mining to launch our rocket to the new highs.
Yesterday was formed strong Bearish Hammer. Today is the day to paint the chart for Programme trades to start buying. Once PPO will make a cross over VIX will drop like a stone and Greed will take place from Fear. I was right to take profit on Google GOOG puts and is open to market rally now. I will revisit fundamentals on Google later. 
Coming election is a too big stake not to use all available resources: people's memory is very short - couple of weeks maintained rally and they will be happy again. Is it right? I do not know, but they will give it a try. Buy value, real assets. Equities buying will pop up the Treasury Bubble, "safe heaven" currency US Dollar will go down, all hard assets will be up.
Now I am in a good company:
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett said he's buying U.S. stocks and, if prices stay attractive, his personal investments, as distinct from his stake in Berkshire Hathaway Inc., will soon be wholly in American equities.
Writing in the New York Times, he said he's following the principle: be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Exaggerated concern about the long-term prosperity of the many sound U.S. companies is foolish, and most will probably be setting profit records in years to come, Buffett said.
While short-term stock-market movements can't be foretold, the likelihood is that the market will recover before the economy or general investor sentiment do so, and ``if you wait for the robins, spring will be over,'' he said.
Referring to the 1930s depression, Buffett pointed out that the Dow reached its nadir on July 8, 1932; economic conditions continued to deteriorate until Franklin Roosevelt became president in March, 1933, but by that time the market had climbed 30 percent.
Bad news, Buffett concluded, is an investor's best friend, for it enables you to buy ``a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.''
Writing in the New York Times, he said he's following the principle: be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Exaggerated concern about the long-term prosperity of the many sound U.S. companies is foolish, and most will probably be setting profit records in years to come, Buffett said.
While short-term stock-market movements can't be foretold, the likelihood is that the market will recover before the economy or general investor sentiment do so, and ``if you wait for the robins, spring will be over,'' he said.
Referring to the 1930s depression, Buffett pointed out that the Dow reached its nadir on July 8, 1932; economic conditions continued to deteriorate until Franklin Roosevelt became president in March, 1933, but by that time the market had climbed 30 percent.
Bad news, Buffett concluded, is an investor's best friend, for it enables you to buy ``a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.''
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
"For the moment at least, China's exporters have defied slumping US and European economies as the annual Christmas supply period ramps up.
Figures released Monday night in Beijing reveal that to the surprise of commentators, September was an all time record for exports.
China's trade surplus hit a record $US29.3 billion last month as exporters defied all the forecasts of falling international demand.
Exports rose 21.5% year-on-year last month compared with 21.1% in August.
In dollar terms, exports in September totalled $US136.4 billion, while imports grew 21.3% to $US107.1 billion, even though the price of oil and many metals has fallen with the slump in global commodity prices."
Figures released Monday night in Beijing reveal that to the surprise of commentators, September was an all time record for exports.
China's trade surplus hit a record $US29.3 billion last month as exporters defied all the forecasts of falling international demand.
Exports rose 21.5% year-on-year last month compared with 21.1% in August.
In dollar terms, exports in September totalled $US136.4 billion, while imports grew 21.3% to $US107.1 billion, even though the price of oil and many metals has fallen with the slump in global commodity prices."
Do you hear that sinking sound, it is Safe Heaven currency giving up...
"Red ink hits $454.8 billion in 2008, more than double that of 2007; economists say bailout to weigh on next year.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The federal budget deficit soared to $454.8 billion in 2008 as a housing collapse and efforts to combat the economic slowdown pushed the tide of government red ink to the highest level in history.
The Bush administration said Tuesday the deficit for the budget year that ended Sept. 30 was more than double the $161.5 billion recorded in 2007.
It surpassed the previous record of $413 billion set in 2004. Economists predicted a far worse number next year as the costs of the government's rescue of the financial system and the economic hard times hit the government's balance sheet."
The Bush administration said Tuesday the deficit for the budget year that ended Sept. 30 was more than double the $161.5 billion recorded in 2007.
It surpassed the previous record of $413 billion set in 2004. Economists predicted a far worse number next year as the costs of the government's rescue of the financial system and the economic hard times hit the government's balance sheet."
"HONG KONG, Oct 14 (Reuters) - China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products rose 20 percent in September on the month, as merchants increased spot imports on attractive margins. Prices of spot refined copper in China were higher than costs of imported material for much of the month, a turnaround from previous months, as low imports previously had reduced supply and supported prices. 'This should give the market a boost. The market was expecting a rise, given the arbitrage. This signals that there is still interest in copper in China,' said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ. 'We still need another month or two of data to confirm a trend, as this might just be a bounce after the Olympics.' The world's top copper consumer imported 213,782 tonnes of unwrought copper in September, including anode, refined and alloy, and semi-finished copper products, versus 178,047 tonnes in August. 'The increase was due to improved price ratios last month,' Wang Danping, an analyst at Jinrui Futures, said. 'Of the imports, we believe refined copper imports should be around 100,000 tonnes,' she said. Wang's estimated refined copper imports would be about 15 percent higher than August's."
No Supply expansion, no inventory, once financial system shows signs of life Zinc will be ready for second parabolic ride.
Major zinc mine cutbacks and closures
"Oct 14 (Reuters) - Rising costs and falling prices have forced a growing number of zinc miners to announce cost-cutting measures, cutbacks or even closures at high-cost operations.
Other producers have delayed projects or said the future of their operations is under review.
Below are details of the major announcements which have been made in recent months.
Oct 9 - Strategic Resources Acquisition (SRA) said it would be initiating a temporary care and maintenance programme at its wholly-owned Mid-Tennessee zinc mining complex (MTZ). The company said that since production began at the Gordonsville mine in April 2008, cash costs per pound of payable zinc had been well above prevailing commodity prices.
Sept 26 - The Galmoy zinc-lead mine in Ireland, owned by Lundin Mining will begin a three-year phased shutdown in December, a union spokesman said. The mine produces about 70,000 tonnes of zinc metal.
September 18 - Australian miner OZ Minerals Ltd OZL.AX , 1.375, +0.195, +16.530%) said it plans to cut zinc production at its Golden Grove mine in Australia by 35-40 percent in 2009 as prices tumble, instead upping output of copper. The company said it plans to cut zinc output by 50,000 tonnes in 2009.
September 8 - Intec Ltd INL.AX , 0.020, +0.003, +17.650%) said it had suspended operations with immediate effect at its Hellyer Zinc Concentrate Project, citing several reasons including low zinc prices and rising production costs.
August 29 - Angus & Ross Plc said it has delayed further construction at its Black Angel mine in Greenland until next year, due to delays in securing project financing.
August 25 - Blue Note Mining said it is deep into the process of cutting costs at its Caribou lead-zinc mines in Canada. The company will reduce its workforce from 370 during the first half of 2008 to 300 in the second half of the year. Costs will also be cut through other measures such as optimisation of production activities.
August 21 - HudBay Minerals Inc said it is closing the Balmat, New York zinc mine and concentrator on Aug 22 because of low prices for the metal. The mine, which restarted in January 2007, was earlier expected to produce at around full capacity of 60,000 tonnes per year (tpy) of contained zinc in 2008.
August 21 - Australia's Perilya Ltd PEM.AX , 0.245, +0.020, +8.890%) said it will cut its zinc production by almost half in the face of low metals prices and will wait for a rebound in the commodities cycle before resuming full operations. Mining of ore this year from the firm's Broken Hill deposit will almost halve to 950,000 tonnes, a level forecast to yield 55,000 tonnes of contained zinc compared with 91,000 tonnes a year earlier.
August 14 - Strategic Resources Acquisition Corporation said in its third quarter results that, as at June 30, 2008, its mining operations were not profitable near term on a sustainable basis. This assessment was based on results of mining operations, including costs of mining and recoveries and prevailing zinc and zinc concentrate prices. The company said it needed to raise additional financing and/or refinance its short-term debt to enable it to remain in operation beyond October 2008. SRA revised its production forecast for calendar 2008 to about 25 million lbs of payable zinc versus previous estimates of about 100 million lbs, citing delays and lower than expected productivity and mill recovery during production ramp-up.
August 7 - Lundin Mining announced in its second quarter results a $152.7 million impairment charge on its Aljustrel zinc mine in Portugal. The company said it was reviewing its options for the mine and said there could be further impairment charges. It expects to make a decision on the mine's future before the end of the third quarter. Options include a possible early extraction of known copper resources at the site. Aljustrel is in start-up mode and produced less zinc than expected in the quarter.
July 17 - Australia's Aim Resources AIM.AX , 0.015, +0, +0%) said plans to dig the Perkoa zinc mine in Burkina Faso have been scrapped due to funding problems linked to depressed zinc prices. At full capacity the mine would have produced around 82,000 tpy of zinc in concentrate.
July 14 - Teck Cominco Ltd said it would close the Lennard Shelf lead-zinc mine in western Australia in August. The company said rising costs, lower prices and a stronger Australian dollar had made it uneconomical. The mine, which was brought out of care and maintenance in early 2007, had been scheduled to remain in operation until 2011. Mine had been expected to produce around 70,000 to 80,000 tpy of contained zinc.
Sources: Reuters, Reuters Metal Production Database (MPD), company results."
Other producers have delayed projects or said the future of their operations is under review.
Below are details of the major announcements which have been made in recent months.
Oct 9 - Strategic Resources Acquisition (SRA) said it would be initiating a temporary care and maintenance programme at its wholly-owned Mid-Tennessee zinc mining complex (MTZ). The company said that since production began at the Gordonsville mine in April 2008, cash costs per pound of payable zinc had been well above prevailing commodity prices.
Sept 26 - The Galmoy zinc-lead mine in Ireland, owned by Lundin Mining will begin a three-year phased shutdown in December, a union spokesman said. The mine produces about 70,000 tonnes of zinc metal.
September 18 - Australian miner OZ Minerals Ltd OZL.AX , 1.375, +0.195, +16.530%) said it plans to cut zinc production at its Golden Grove mine in Australia by 35-40 percent in 2009 as prices tumble, instead upping output of copper. The company said it plans to cut zinc output by 50,000 tonnes in 2009.
September 8 - Intec Ltd INL.AX , 0.020, +0.003, +17.650%) said it had suspended operations with immediate effect at its Hellyer Zinc Concentrate Project, citing several reasons including low zinc prices and rising production costs.
August 29 - Angus & Ross Plc said it has delayed further construction at its Black Angel mine in Greenland until next year, due to delays in securing project financing.
August 25 - Blue Note Mining said it is deep into the process of cutting costs at its Caribou lead-zinc mines in Canada. The company will reduce its workforce from 370 during the first half of 2008 to 300 in the second half of the year. Costs will also be cut through other measures such as optimisation of production activities.
August 21 - HudBay Minerals Inc said it is closing the Balmat, New York zinc mine and concentrator on Aug 22 because of low prices for the metal. The mine, which restarted in January 2007, was earlier expected to produce at around full capacity of 60,000 tonnes per year (tpy) of contained zinc in 2008.
August 21 - Australia's Perilya Ltd PEM.AX , 0.245, +0.020, +8.890%) said it will cut its zinc production by almost half in the face of low metals prices and will wait for a rebound in the commodities cycle before resuming full operations. Mining of ore this year from the firm's Broken Hill deposit will almost halve to 950,000 tonnes, a level forecast to yield 55,000 tonnes of contained zinc compared with 91,000 tonnes a year earlier.
August 14 - Strategic Resources Acquisition Corporation said in its third quarter results that, as at June 30, 2008, its mining operations were not profitable near term on a sustainable basis. This assessment was based on results of mining operations, including costs of mining and recoveries and prevailing zinc and zinc concentrate prices. The company said it needed to raise additional financing and/or refinance its short-term debt to enable it to remain in operation beyond October 2008. SRA revised its production forecast for calendar 2008 to about 25 million lbs of payable zinc versus previous estimates of about 100 million lbs, citing delays and lower than expected productivity and mill recovery during production ramp-up.
August 7 - Lundin Mining announced in its second quarter results a $152.7 million impairment charge on its Aljustrel zinc mine in Portugal. The company said it was reviewing its options for the mine and said there could be further impairment charges. It expects to make a decision on the mine's future before the end of the third quarter. Options include a possible early extraction of known copper resources at the site. Aljustrel is in start-up mode and produced less zinc than expected in the quarter.
July 17 - Australia's Aim Resources AIM.AX , 0.015, +0, +0%) said plans to dig the Perkoa zinc mine in Burkina Faso have been scrapped due to funding problems linked to depressed zinc prices. At full capacity the mine would have produced around 82,000 tpy of zinc in concentrate.
July 14 - Teck Cominco Ltd said it would close the Lennard Shelf lead-zinc mine in western Australia in August. The company said rising costs, lower prices and a stronger Australian dollar had made it uneconomical. The mine, which was brought out of care and maintenance in early 2007, had been scheduled to remain in operation until 2011. Mine had been expected to produce around 70,000 to 80,000 tpy of contained zinc.
Sources: Reuters, Reuters Metal Production Database (MPD), company results."
Monday, October 13, 2008
So far, so good:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/10/death-of-equity-or-dow-plus-1000-points.html
I have added Calls on GDX to my positions.
Jim Rogers has called what is coming as "Inflationary Holocaust".
Bottleneck for all these trillions of US Dollars and other FIAT currencies coming:
GDX, SSRI, SLW, MGN, RGLD, AUY, GG, NEM, ABX
I am expecting Fireworks this week in Junior mining sector: TNR.v, CZX.v, SST.v, OK.v, FVI.v, SAX.to, RVM.to, SBB.v, AMM.to, MAI.v.
Oct 09/08
Oct 08/08
BELLA, JEROME , MICHAEL
Direct Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
5,000
$0.150
Oct 06/08
Oct 06/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
5,000
$0.150
Oct 06/08
Oct 06/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
1,000
$0.175
Oct 06/08
Oct 01/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
5,000
$0.160
Oct 06/08
Oct 01/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
5,000
$0.170
Oct 03/08
Oct 03/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
10,000
$0.180
Oct 03/08
Oct 02/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
5,000
$0.175
Oct 03/08
Oct 02/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
4,000
$0.170
Oct 01/08
Sep 30/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Direct Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
5,000
$0.170
Oct 01/08
Sep 30/08
Schellenberg, Gary David Albert
Direct Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
5,000
$0.160
Cost of Bailout: The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, US Dollar will collapse.
at 4:34 AM"Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The global financial crisis is turning into a bigger drain on the U.S. federal budget than experts estimated two weeks ago, ballooning the deficit toward $2 trillion.
Bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac likely will be more expensive than expected. States are turning to Washington for fiscal help. The Federal Reserve said this week it will begin buying commercial paper, the short- term loans companies used to conduct day-to-day business, further increasing costs. And analysts now say the $700 billion bank- rescue plan passed by Congress last week may have to be significantly larger.
``I always assumed they would be asking for more money along the way if it was necessary, and it looks like it's going to be necessary,'' said Stan Collender, a former analyst for the House and Senate budget committees, now at Qorvis Communications in Washington. ``At the moment, there's nothing happening here that's positive for the budget. Nothing.''
The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, or 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the record of 6 percent set in 1983, according to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief economist. Two weeks ago, budget analysts said the measures might push deficit to as much as $1.5 trillion.
Yields to Rise
That means a lot more borrowing by Treasury, which will push up interest rates, said Greenlaw. ``The Treasury's going to be ramping up supply dramatically over the course of coming months to meet this enormous federal budget obligation,'' Greenlaw told Bloomberg this week. ``The supply will trigger some elevation in yields.''
Treasuries have fallen the past four days even as stocks sank, a sign investors are preparing for bigger U.S. government borrowing. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose to 3.82 percent at 7:49 a.m. in New York, from a close of 3.45 percent Oct. 6. "
Bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac likely will be more expensive than expected. States are turning to Washington for fiscal help. The Federal Reserve said this week it will begin buying commercial paper, the short- term loans companies used to conduct day-to-day business, further increasing costs. And analysts now say the $700 billion bank- rescue plan passed by Congress last week may have to be significantly larger.
``I always assumed they would be asking for more money along the way if it was necessary, and it looks like it's going to be necessary,'' said Stan Collender, a former analyst for the House and Senate budget committees, now at Qorvis Communications in Washington. ``At the moment, there's nothing happening here that's positive for the budget. Nothing.''
The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, or 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the record of 6 percent set in 1983, according to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief economist. Two weeks ago, budget analysts said the measures might push deficit to as much as $1.5 trillion.
Yields to Rise
That means a lot more borrowing by Treasury, which will push up interest rates, said Greenlaw. ``The Treasury's going to be ramping up supply dramatically over the course of coming months to meet this enormous federal budget obligation,'' Greenlaw told Bloomberg this week. ``The supply will trigger some elevation in yields.''
Treasuries have fallen the past four days even as stocks sank, a sign investors are preparing for bigger U.S. government borrowing. Benchmark 10-year note yields rose to 3.82 percent at 7:49 a.m. in New York, from a close of 3.45 percent Oct. 6. "
What to do now?
Study the history, make decisions:
Sunday, October 12, 2008
"Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- European leaders agreed to guarantee bank borrowing and use government money to prevent big lenders from going under, trying to stop the financial hemorrhage and stave off a recession. "
BEIJING, Oct 12 (Reuters) - China's Communist Party on Sunday approved rural reforms aiming to unleash the economic power of hundreds of millions of farmers, as it looks to home markets as a bulwark against the global financial crisis.
The country's leaders huddled together with experts and farmer representatives during a four day conclave, with results delivered only after it closed and President Hu Jintao made a report.
'The Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee on Sunday approved a decision on major issues concerning rural reform and development,' the official Xinhua agency said, in a report that gave no further details.
But a torrent of recent speeches and reports have already made clear the leadership is intent on lifting the income and productivity of China's 740 million-plus farming population in a bid to boost domestic growth and ease social unrest.
'The global credit crisis freezing up the world's finances may be a blessing in disguise for China as it aims to modify its economic structure after three decades of breakneck growth,' Xinhua said in a commentary on Sunday.
'The government turned to the vast rural market, which has 55 percent of the nation's consumers,' the report added, before mentioning the leadership meeting and the reforms it passed.
Amex Gold Bugs Index HUI and Dow relations during Last Dot.com Bubble. Gold shares are still in a Bull Market.
at 1:56 AM
Few interesting observations: HUI is still up from its Low 36.01 (!!!) in late 2000 more then 589% at 248.12 at this Friday close. Emotions will let you think that everything was collapsing in the same irrational fashion moved by Fear with its indicator VIX as high as 76.94 on Friday afternoon. But from chart above you can see that Gold miners HUI are still in a Bull market, testing strong support at 200-250 area and performed a Double Bottom on a daily chart. So far Goldies HUI has given up from its high 514.89 (total increase of 1330%!!! from its Low in 2000) 52% of its incredible gains. With General Equities represented by Dow the situation is very much different: recent sell off has wiped out almost all gains from its last Low at H&S bottom formation around 8000 after Dot.com Bubble burst in late 2002. Now you can see why it was so important for PPT (Plunge Protection Team) to defend 8000 level and they smashed shorts into covering in late Friday afternoon. (That piece was written in middle of the day on Friday, they must be reading my Blog now, I do not mind: Guys please stop messing around and let the US Dollar go, leave a message and even I will tell you how to bring Gold into the Honest money again. Question is who would like or can afford to be Honest these days?) It is the last chance to keep Dow Paper Bull running in Equities with painting Double Bottom on multi year chart with Lows around 8000 mark. The question is that the real value is slipping away with US Dollar losing its ground. Gold value of Dow in 2002 and in 2008 at the same 8000 level are too very different things. I am very cynical and biased here, I went long last week at my maximum and cut all my Put protections from downside. I am 100% Long for the first time in last five years. So I am eating my own bread as usual. Even my fellow Google GOOG deserve a break now from my accusation on overvaluation. Possibility of a powerful rally even in General Equities is too high to be greedy on picking the last 10-20% from the downside. You can not manipulate markets forever and charts above are the best confirmation. Bull is a Bull in Goldies HUI and painted Paper Bull in Dow is at the life support.
Next drama will be unfolded in The Treasury Bubble: all lemmings (this time professionals) are there sitting at the cliff. Once patient (world financial system) will be pronounced more alive then dead and Risk will come back into play, "Risk Heaven" of Treasuries "backed" by more then 10 trillion debt and coming Paper for financing all these bailouts will collapse. Tripple AAA rating of USA Treasuries is backed no more then Trust and it will never come back. Last Friday action was really astonishing with Equities collapsing, Treasuries were sold as well, Gold and Silver were trashed to give more legs to Dead Cat bounce in US Dollar.
On the charts above picture is telling more then thousand words. Goldies HUI were panished by Fear during initial sell off after Dot.com collapse, but bottomed in late of 2000 and never looked back. Dow on the other hand was making low lows until late 2002. Incoming flood of liquidity will bring Gold shares value back in line with underlining commodity and then they will finally decouple from misery of over leveraged financial economy build on borrowed time. This time is over.
P.S. I have one follower now! Who is it? Is it Ben or Hank? Guys I have a nice landing spot in my garden, send me couple of choppers, please. I will give you discount from my gold mines when you will come back to Gold Standard.
DIA, SPY, QQQQ, HUI, XAU, CDNX, SLW, SSRI, AUY, RGLD, ABX, NEM, GG, SST.v, TNR.v, CZX.v, SAX.to, OK.v, FVI.v.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Time is to Buy Equities: 30 Year Treasury Yield TYX hit the Double Bottom? Treasury Bubble Collapse is in the making.
at 12:09 PM
We have here very interesting and important formation. TYX 30 Year Treasury Yield has hit double bottom at 3.895% and 3.897 respectively. I already have mentioned what kind of joke is it to buy 30 Year Treasury Paper of USA with 10 trillion debt and counting for the interest below 4%? Mr Market seems to agree for now and with recent panic during last week 30 Years Treasury actually fall in prices, they suppose to rise when investors are shifting out from Equities into "Safe" Treasuries. For me it is another indication that market is ready to turn up. Only professionals are investing in 30 Year Treasuries to match their maturity on obligations. So there is a sign that they were selling treasuries during retail panic and Fear collapsing the prices in equities. When all these guys will run for an exit we will have a fireworks in Gold and Silver and waterfall in Treasuries and US Dollar. Supply and Demand will rule in normal economics here. It is a very big market and can not be so easily manipulated like in Equities, Gold and Silver which particularly could be turned on a dime.
What kind of Equities to buy? Simple and solid. Hard assets. Why touch financials if you can not figure out what kind of value is there and what kind of strings in the form of "Swaps made by Play Station kids" are attached. Most of them are insolvent anyway. They will not collapse now as a system guaranteed by printing presses of all developed world, credit could start flow again with Interbank Guarantee from the same FIAT money supply. But what kind of value you are getting there? Earnings will be diluted with all capital increase necessary for solvency, financial models will change to simplified ones and suppression of margins will make these guys a bleak investment story for another 5-10 years. I will go as usual for the Hard assets needed by those who have cash, which is the King now. Story should be simple, on one page and understandable in five minutes. All those CDS, CDO and CTNs "Close To Nothing" with AAA rating are finished for another 10 years until new suckers will be born into the market place. The secret for the wealth building will be same old as during centuries: Buy at the rock bottom prices things that are necessary for growing population and developing world, sit on them and develop value during coming Boom times when Greed will be in play again. Retail panic and redemption from Hedge Funds (I still can not get what they were hedging all this years - their Villas from Bagholders?), Mutual Funds (managers are having fun all they way and you are Mutually sharing losses during the hard times) has brought unbelievable value to Resource sector. Do not get me wrong, Supply and Demand all the way and if Raul Castro will be elected in USA in Depression and Congress will be rationing Soap my theory will not work.
In all other circumstances Buy when "the blood on the street" we are here and Fear is so strong that babies are thrown away even without bath water.
Majors will appreciate first ones credit will be flowing again: Yamana Gold AUY growing producer with assets in Americas and low cash cost, Silver Wheaton SLW highly leveraged to Silver recovery with fixed cost for Silver streams at 4.0 USD, Silver Standard SSRI upcoming producer with huge resources in the ground.
General public will hit back on all names ones will be assured that the End of the World is postponed: NEM, ABX, GG, FCX, BHP, RTP.
Fortunes will be made in Juniors if you can manage to stay solvent before you get rich. Good homework is a must here. Margin is all but a swearing in the Church in this sector: you will have enough adrenaline without it, you can trust me on this one.
Silver Stone SST.v small brother of Silver Wheaton SLW - can I dream selling it at over 3.0 CAD that stock will be missing me so much that will make all way back to 0.7CAD? Hardly, I am not even close to be so clever here. But it is here dating me again and I have checked all background and apart from dumping by funds who bought it at 2.9 CAD latest PP could not find any Evil.
TNR Gold TNR.v back to 0.15CAD from 0.12 CAD during sell off, but try to buy something for 500k you will drive it all the way back to 0.25-0.3CAD before collapse in the Canadian Venture.
Interesting view on mining Argentina is here.
And here is a very important observation for Junior markets. Stocks are at the level of 2003 when Juniors took off and performed 5-10 times rally into 2005. All these years they have spent billions on exploration, found deposits, defined resources and even start building mines. Literally value were build in the ground and they are back to the level when they were dreaming about The Bull Market.
Canada Zinc Metals CZX.v we have a very special relationship here. It is a recovery story and contrarian play on Zinc. Just tell me when when the housing will recover (we will not talk about China for a while) - 2, 3, 5 years. I am even OK with 5 years here - you will not put a mine even if you start looking for Zinc now. Once the dust will settle Zinc will recover from 0.6 USD - it is the level of closing mines, 0.75 is a cut off for Chinese smelters. All these calculated Oversupply will never come at this level and half of the big deposits are in Afganistan, Iran, Russia and Africa. Thank you very much, I do like Canada and 10% Zinc grade and 50 million t deposit next to Akie surrounded by CZX.v land.
We have a good chance to make a double bottom if previous Low at 234.35 will hold. Friday was just a waterfall dumping of all positions. PPT tried hard to bring markets into positive close last Friday as I have wrote in the middle of the session. DOW 8000 is the line in the sand and 0.82 is a crucial for US Dollar. Gold and Silver were trashed to make the Us Dollar rally more legs. Something coming on over the weekend. Rate Cut and more money pumping as Interbank Guarantee comes to mind. ABX, NEM, RGLD, AUY, SSRI, SLWFriday, October 10, 2008
Where the hell is PPT (Plunge Protection Team)? On vacation or busy trashing Gold and Euro in order to keep US Dollar alive after over the weekend Cut? Plan could be: to defend 8000 on the Dow and close into the positive tonight, Cut over the weekend and issue the blanket guarantee for interbank market. Market will fly next week. If the plan does not work: in the cards will be closing the markets and announcing banking holiday. Price is too big to fail. Today's valuations for stocks not exposed to financial WMD are totally irrational and based on Fear. If their plan works fortunes will be made. Public as always late to Sell. You will see PPT at work when DOW and S&P will move straight up. They let shorts to short yesterday and short covering will bring fire into the play. Gold is like a fishing rod today again, best buy.
US Dollar is over 0.82 and Gold is getting trashed to 825. Are they going to Cut over the weekend again? Today's action in General markets is like a turnaround point: Heavy Sell Off in the morning and retest in the afternoon, will the low hold? Some Juniors are showing signs of life. Once liquidity and Greed will be back we will look for 40-50% over day gains. Taking Calls positions on hammered today Silver Standard SSRI, Silver Wheaton SLW and Yamana Gold AUY. Juniors on my radar screen TNR Gold TNR.v (up to 0.15CAD with high at 0.17CAD today), Canada Zinc Metals CZX.v at 0.35CAD trashed with Zinc price, Silverstone Resources SST.v back to 0.7CAD.
Look at that Hockey Stick below the chart. Trees are not grow to the sky forever. US Dollar is close to important resistance at 0.82. Should the "flight to safety" stop US dollar will drop like a rock. Blanket guarantee for interbank market should they impose it over the weekend in USA means that all potential losses will be absorbed by the Treasury balance sheet. It is right thing to do now, but at a cost: this cost is devaluation of US Dollar and downgrade of USA Treasuries rating from AAA.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Last time I was buying in October 2006 right into those levels at 0.65CAD. Silver was at 11USD. SilverStone was just a spin off from Capstone Mining CS.to, no any single silver revenue stream - only exploration potential. It is just to show how value has been disconnected from market prices by panicking Mr Market. If Gold is now in a Super Bull Mood, Silver will follow. Revenue in SilverStone will increase, will stock continue to fall? Nowadays you never know for sure when another hedge fund will go belly up. The only assurance is that stock is recovering from recent low and is not hitting new one with sympathy to general markets waterfall today. On TA bases will be nice to see Double Bottom confirmation on multi year scale.
We have important divergence on PPO Gold Mining companies are not hitting new lows with DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new ones.
Gold at 912 and S&P 500 at 910 has finally crossed!
This is our baby to watch, couple of days ago flight to "safety" brought Yield even below 4%. Once Global Margin call will be cleared need in former reserve currency will diminish, how they gonna sell all those treasuries needed for bailout? Only giving out higher interest - Yield.
Last time I have checked TA called it Double Bottom. General public has lifted Gold and forgot about Silver. Its time will come, more risk appetite will bring crowd into this tiny sector: SSRI, SLW, SST.v, MGN.
It will be a start of Mania phase in Gold Bull market with general public coming on.
Are you shocked that Inflation could be coupled with Stagnation? Just have a look at Zimbabwe...
* Pending debt supply again weighs on bonds
* Higher stocks also squash any safety bid for debt
* Bonds briefly pare losses after weekly jobless data (Adds analysts' quotes, byline, updates prices)
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices fell for a third straight day on Thursday as debt supply issues weighed on the market, while Wall Street opened higher and sapped any safety bid for bonds.
A host of new debt programs intended to free up lending is expected to result in increased issuance of bonds from the Treasury, diluting supply and undermining prices.
"Yesterday we had a sell-off, and much of that was driven by supply -- supply is definitely a factor here," said David Coard, head of fixed income sales and trading at Williams Capital Group in New York.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were trading 31/32 lower in price for a yield of 3.77 percent from 3.66 percent late on Wednesday, while 2-year Treasury notes _were trading 8/32 lower in price for a yield of 1.70 percent from 1.57 percent late Wednesday.
* Higher stocks also squash any safety bid for debt
* Bonds briefly pare losses after weekly jobless data (Adds analysts' quotes, byline, updates prices)
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices fell for a third straight day on Thursday as debt supply issues weighed on the market, while Wall Street opened higher and sapped any safety bid for bonds.
A host of new debt programs intended to free up lending is expected to result in increased issuance of bonds from the Treasury, diluting supply and undermining prices.
"Yesterday we had a sell-off, and much of that was driven by supply -- supply is definitely a factor here," said David Coard, head of fixed income sales and trading at Williams Capital Group in New York.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
This is important, Demand is there prices will follow...
"Australia's Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said China has assured him that demand for Australian resources will stay strong, shielding the commodities-dependent economy from the global financial crisis.Mandarin-speaking Rudd said he telephoned Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Monday and was told commodity demand would hold up despite China's growth slipping from "11% and 12% down to 9% and 10%". "Part of the long-term strategy of this government, and the strategy for the period immediately ahead, is how to more deeply and broadly engage with the Chinese economy," Rudd told Australian media on Thursday.Australia is pinning its hopes on China to ride out the current turmoil on international financial markets. The country's central bank slash interest rates by one percentage point this week to try and maintain economic growth and liquidity."
It is called The Total Extinction. Nobody needs any Resources any more. Where will Majors take all these needed Ounces and Pounds in five year time? They have cut to the bone all their exploration during the last cycle and depending on Juniors to deliver resources. For them it is easier and cheaper to buy out resources from the market of Junior mining and Exploration Companies then to develop their own exploration pipeline. Just return to normal Risk Perception will bring Index 3-4 times higher. Ten Baggers are back into the play.Different guys and similar destiny worth of DD: SST.v, OK.v, MGN, TNR.v, CZN.v, SAX.to.
All Gold Miners were thrown out with general equities: the difference here is value - at current Gold prices they are printing money. With Greed coming in instead of Fear Index could double with Gold price holding at this level. SSRI, SLW, AUY, NEM, ABX, AEM.As I have mentioned before Treasury Bubble is next to explode. TYX yesterday finally crossed back above 4% Yield. It is some kind of joke, who is buying it at below 4% for 30 year? As it was mentioned even on bubble Vision CNBC you can get higher Yield at 90 days paper backed by Treasury now. Once the tide changes it will be like gasoline on the fire for sliding US Dollar.
I will not be surprised now with DOW plus 1000 rally, after everybody has announced death of the equities. Do not fight FED now, close your puts position. I have sold all my Google GOOG puts and will return back after earnings and possible rally. Fear is at its High - time is to Buy. Amount of money pumped into the system is unprecedented. If the earth not stopping to spin now, bargains in Juniors will bring new fortunes for those brave to buy at these levels. Now the real decoupling begins between overinflated artificial financial assets and commodities with scarce supply like Gold, Silver, Zinc and Copper which are my preference. Why should you touch any poisonous financial stick when you do not understand what is inside of that "value" proposition? Go for simple things regulated by economics of supply and Demand and not by FED or its Friends from the Wall Street. They will save the world - it is fine we need it, but what kind of world will it be? What will be valued? where is the next story of building Wealth? Real things, real people, know your story and invest accordingly. With Gold above 850 USD Gold mining stocks are back to valuations at levels below USD500. In Silver divergence between value and stock prices are even higher. Once all these waterfall of liquidity will find its way into the system sector will explode to the upside. My rebound squad: SSRI, SLW, AUY, SST.v, TNR.v, CZX.v
If you are still adept of efficient market thesis, stay away from the market and invest in 30 year Treasury with yield below 4%. You will be most definitely "safely" losing your money on inflation there. Small problem is now you can not be sure whether treasuries will be around in 10 years time.
Canada Zinc Metals CZX.v has fallen down to 0.4CAD just after completing financing at 0.9CAD. Zinc is at 0.65USD now and indicating a complete depression for another 10 years. Who is right: Mr Market in its hangover mood or those who are buying now - only time will tell.
"Private placement
The company is also pleased to announce that, further to news in Stockwatch on Sept. 15, 2008, and Oct. 3, 2008, due to continued strong interest, it will be raising an additional $1-million through the issuance of 1,111,111 flow-through shares at a price of 90 cents per share."
"EXPANSION OF CARDIAC CREEK DEPOSIT 12.13 METRES GRADING 10.17% ZINC, 1.75% LEAD, 12.45 G/T SILVER AND 10.35 METRES GRADING 12.72% ZINC, 2.04% LEAD, 14.45 G/T SILVER
Canada Zinc Metals Corp. has provided the first batch of assay results it has received from its 2008 drill program on the zinc-lead-silver-bearing Cardiac Creek (CC) deposit. The CC deposit is on the 100-per-cent-owned Akie property in northeastern British Columbia, approximately 260 kilometres north-northwest of the town of Mackenzie. "
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Finally somebody is reading this blog, Gold, Silver and commodities will appreciate against all FIAT currencies:
"Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and four other central banks lowered interest rates in an unprecedented, emergency coordinated bid to ease the economic effects of the financial crisis.
The Fed cut its benchmark rate by a half point to 1.5 percent, the central bank in a statement. The ECB and central banks of the U.K., Canada, Sweden and Switzerland are also reducing rates, the Fed said in a statement.
``The recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and thus has diminished further the upside risks to price stability,'' according to a joint statement by the central banks. ``Some easing of global monetary conditions is therefore warranted.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net "
The Fed cut its benchmark rate by a half point to 1.5 percent, the central bank in a statement. The ECB and central banks of the U.K., Canada, Sweden and Switzerland are also reducing rates, the Fed said in a statement.
``The recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and thus has diminished further the upside risks to price stability,'' according to a joint statement by the central banks. ``Some easing of global monetary conditions is therefore warranted.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net "
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Divergence of value and a stock price in a capitulation phase is very apparent in this case of a small Junior - pure Zinc play in a safe Canada mining environment. Stock was trading today below 0.5CAD and financing was closed on Friday at 0.9CAD for more then 6 million CAD.
More on the company:
More on Zinc:
If you feel Fear - you are not alone. This is The Fear index: it is above 50, total panic - serious damage has been done to the confidence and all babies are thrown out with the water and there is no End to this suffering. Even Google GOOG is taking my advise and tanking faster then Nasdaq QQQQ into more sensible valuation. Gold is holding well above 850, all Gold stocks and juniors are crashed as if Gold was below 350 again. It is called desperation and a life time opportunity. If you are still solvent, it is time to Buy. Help is coming, Rates will be Cut, time is for US dollar to sink, not for all economy. Once Greed raises its head you will be surprise how the mood could change: even yours. We are all animals after all... Friday, October 3, 2008
TNR Gold TNR.v Amends Legal Action to Seek Rectification Confirming 25% Back-In Right. MAI.v
at 10:39 PMVANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Oct. 3, 2008) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News; PINK SHEETS:TRRXF - News) advises that, on August 8, 2008, it amended its writ of summons in the action commenced on June 30, 2008 in the Supreme Court of British Columbia against MIM Argentina Exploraciones S.A. ("MIM") a subsidiary of Xstrata PLC. ("Xstrata"). In the amended action TNR is adding:
"Further, the Exploration and Option Agreement, to the extent that it purports to terminate Solitario's (TNR's Argentina subsidiary) right to buy back equity in mining and exploration tenures acquired by MIM pursuant to the Exploration and Option Agreement if MIM fails to complete a feasibility study on any part of the properties within 36 months of exercising its option does not reflect the true agreement and common intention of the parties and was the result of a mutual mistake of the parties. The true agreement of the parties was reflected in the Letter of Understanding which provided that Solitario's back-in right subsists until 120 days after completion by MIM of a feasibility study on any part of the acquired properties. The plaintiffs therefore seek rectification of the Exploration and Option Agreement to accord with the true intentions of the parties.
Further, or in the alternative, the 36 month provision in the Exploration and Option Agreement was inserted by MIM without consideration and is unenforceable.
Further, or in the alternative, Solitario says that MIM is in breach of the Exploration and Option Agreement by entering into an agreement or agreement with a third party to undertake exploration work on the acquired properties without requiring the third party to complete a feasibility study on any of the properties within any time frame."
LOS AZULES /ESCORPIO IV UPDATE
The following is a summary in chronological order of recent events, news releases, and developments from Minera Andes Inc. ("MAI") pertinent to the Los Azules property that had not been previously released by TNR.
On September 25, 2008, MAI announces excellent metallurgical testing results at Los Azules, recovering up to 96% copper. In addition a costing and operational cost scoping study is scheduled for completion in December 2008.
On September 8, 2008, MAI announces a mineral resource estimate of 922 million tonnes of 0.55% copper as Los Azules, totalling to approximately 11 billion pounds of copper.
For more information about specific news release details, please refer to MAI's news and investor section directly.
ABOUT TNR
TNR is a base and precious metals exploration company focused on aggressively identifying new prospective projects as well as fostering work on its large portfolio of 15 properties in Argentina. The company's focus over the next 12 months is the exploration and development of its El Tapau, El Salto, and Eureka projects in Argentina as well as overseeing the exploration and development of the Iliamna and Shotgun projects in Alaska through its wholly owned US subsidiary.
CUSIP: #87260X 109
SEC 12g3-2(b): Exemption #82-4434
The TSX Venture Exchange does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
"Further, the Exploration and Option Agreement, to the extent that it purports to terminate Solitario's (TNR's Argentina subsidiary) right to buy back equity in mining and exploration tenures acquired by MIM pursuant to the Exploration and Option Agreement if MIM fails to complete a feasibility study on any part of the properties within 36 months of exercising its option does not reflect the true agreement and common intention of the parties and was the result of a mutual mistake of the parties. The true agreement of the parties was reflected in the Letter of Understanding which provided that Solitario's back-in right subsists until 120 days after completion by MIM of a feasibility study on any part of the acquired properties. The plaintiffs therefore seek rectification of the Exploration and Option Agreement to accord with the true intentions of the parties.
Further, or in the alternative, the 36 month provision in the Exploration and Option Agreement was inserted by MIM without consideration and is unenforceable.
Further, or in the alternative, Solitario says that MIM is in breach of the Exploration and Option Agreement by entering into an agreement or agreement with a third party to undertake exploration work on the acquired properties without requiring the third party to complete a feasibility study on any of the properties within any time frame."
LOS AZULES /ESCORPIO IV UPDATE
The following is a summary in chronological order of recent events, news releases, and developments from Minera Andes Inc. ("MAI") pertinent to the Los Azules property that had not been previously released by TNR.
On September 25, 2008, MAI announces excellent metallurgical testing results at Los Azules, recovering up to 96% copper. In addition a costing and operational cost scoping study is scheduled for completion in December 2008.
On September 8, 2008, MAI announces a mineral resource estimate of 922 million tonnes of 0.55% copper as Los Azules, totalling to approximately 11 billion pounds of copper.
For more information about specific news release details, please refer to MAI's news and investor section directly.
ABOUT TNR
TNR is a base and precious metals exploration company focused on aggressively identifying new prospective projects as well as fostering work on its large portfolio of 15 properties in Argentina. The company's focus over the next 12 months is the exploration and development of its El Tapau, El Salto, and Eureka projects in Argentina as well as overseeing the exploration and development of the Iliamna and Shotgun projects in Alaska through its wholly owned US subsidiary.
CUSIP: #87260X 109
SEC 12g3-2(b): Exemption #82-4434
The TSX Venture Exchange does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
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